macropulse

• MPC to accept negative real interest rates

  11.01.2017

  As we expected, the Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate amounts to 1.50%). The bias of the Council's statement has not substantially changed compared to the December statement. ...

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• November data above expectations

  19.12.2016

  In accordance with GUS data, sold production of industry in enterprises employing more than 9 people rose by 3.3% YoY in November vs. a 1.3% decline in October, which was significantly above our forecast (0.0%) and the market consensus (1.8%). Seasonally-adjusted industrial production rose by 2.1% MoM in November. ...

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• Labour market data surprised to the upside

  16.12.2016

  In accordance with GUS data published today, nominal wage dynamics in the sector of enterprises employing more than 9 persons increased to 4.0% YoY in November vs. 3.6% in October, running above our forecast (3.8%) and the market consensus (3.9%). In real terms, price-adjusted corporate wages rose by 4.0% YoY ...

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• Inflation is growing due to higher food prices

  12.12.2016

  In accordance with the final GUS data, CPI inflation rose to 0.0% YoY in November vs. -0.2% in October, running in line with the flash GUS estimate and our forecast equal to the market consensus. ...

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• NBP Governor emphasizes temporary nature of the slowdown

  07.12.2016

  As we expected, the Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate amounts to 1.50%) ...

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• Further decline of export orders in Polish manufacturing

  01.12.2016

  Business sentiment in Polish manufacturing (PMI) rose to 51.9 pts in November from 50.2 pts in October, running markedly above our forecast (50.7 pts) and the market consensus (50.8 pts) ...

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• Deeper slump in investments neutralized the positive impact of consumption in Q3

  30.11.2016

  In accordance with the today's GUS reading, GDP growth rate in Q3 2016 amounted to 2.5% YoY vs. 3.1% in Q2 and thus was in line with the flash estimate released earlier. Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% QoQ in Q3 vs. a 0.8% increase in Q2 ...

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• Q4 opened poorly

  21.11.2016

  In accordance with GUS data, sold production of industry in enterprises employing more than 9 people declined by 1.3% YoY in October vs. a 3.2% increase in September, which was below our forecast (0.9%) and the market consensus (0.8%). Seasonally-adjusted industrial production rose by 1.3% MoM in October. ...

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• Surprising fall in wage dynamics in October

  18.11.2016

  In accordance with GUS data published today, nominal wage dynamics in the sector of enterprises employing more than 9 persons dropped to 3.6% YoY in October vs. 3.9% in September, running below our forecast (4.3%) equal to the market consensus. In real terms, price-adjusted corporate wages rose by 3.8% YoY ...

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• Surprisingly weak Q3 GDP reading

  15.11.2016

  In accordance with the today's GUS reading, GDP growth rate in Q3 amounted to 2.5% YoY vs. 3.1% in Q2 and thus was markedly below our forecast (2.8%) and the market consensus (2.9%). ...

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