Quick retail sales growth continues
In accordance with the data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) today, nominal retail sales growth rate reported by businesses with more than 9 employees came in at 5.0% YoY in December 2025, up from 2.8% in November, which was below the market consensus (5.1%) and above our forecast (3.8%). Growth in retail sales at constant prices went up from 3.1% YoY in November to 5.3% in December, printing below the market consensus (5.5%) and above our forecast (4.3%). Favourable calendar effects contributed to the increase in the dynamics of retail sales (in November 2025, there was one working day less compared with November 2024, while in December 2025, the number of working days was the same as in December 2024). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices in December went up by 0.2% MoM, which means that sales in December reached an all-time high.
Consumer sentiment getting closer and closer to pre-pandemic levels
Real retail sales growth was reported in all categories except “textiles, clothing and footwear”, where seasonal distortions boosted sales growth in November, but slowed it down in December (see MACROpulse of 22/12/2025). Particularly noteworthy about the data breakdown is the growth in sales, at constant prices, of “furniture, electronic goods and household appliances“, from 16.6% YoY in November to 19.8% YoY in December. Consequently, year-on-year retail sales growth seen in that category in December 2025 turned out to be the strongest since March 2019, except for years 2020-2022, where annual sales growth was biased by pandemic restrictions and the inflow of refugees after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Furthermore, the “motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts” category once again saw a two-digit growth in December (13.1% YoY vs. 12.9% in November). The continued, strong sales growth in the two categories mentioned above mirrors the upward trend of households becoming increasingly inclined to make “current major purchases” (in January, the relevant indicator has reached the highest value since March 2020, i.e. since just before the pandemic). This indicates that the outlook for demand for consumer durables supported by the expected increase in the real wage fund remains favourable. We still expect that the demand for durables in 2026 will be additionally supported by a marked rise in the number of dwellings completed (see MACROmap of 6/10/2025).
Upside risk to our Q4 consumption growth forecast
We assess that the 6-month moving average for the so-called core sales growth (i.e. growth in sales other than that of vehicles, fuels and food) stood at 5.9% YoY in December, reaching the highest level since January 2023. Strong core sales growth combined with consumer sentiment data support our scenario in which consumption will remain a stable source of GDP growth in Poland in the coming quarters. At the same time, today’s data on December retail sales carries an upside risk to our consumption forecast for Q4 (3.5% YoY vs. 4.5% in Q3).
In our view, today’s data on retail sales in December is neutral for the PLN and the yields on bonds.
