The PMI for Polish manufacturing increased to 48.7 pts in March from 47.1 pts in February, coming in well above both our forecast (47.5 pts) and market expectations (47.2 pts). The increase in March reflects stronger contributions from 4 out of its 5 sub-indices (output, new orders, suppliers’ delivery times and stocks of purchases), while the employment declined slightly. The PMI has remained above the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction for 11 consecutive months.
Notably, the suppliers’ delivery times sub-index has dropped to its lowest level since June 2022, which indicates a significant increase in delivery times. This is due to supply chain disruptions linked with the armed conflict in the Middle East. According to the survey methodology, longer delivery times tend to push the PMI index upward. If the impact of this factor were eliminated, the PMI would be 0.4 pts lower, at 48.3 pts, and would thus still be higher than in February. This means that business sentiment in the Polish manufacturing sector improved in March.
Meanwhile, the output sub-index rose above the 50-point threshold for the first time since April 2025. The increase in production materialised amid a slower decline in total new orders, accompanied by a steeper drop in new export orders. Against this backdrop businesses continued to clear production backlog that had accumulated earlier. Meanwhile, employment declined for the 11th consecutive month, which, according to the report, was due to a lower number of new orders, low capacity utilisation, and restructuring measures.
Within the March PMI index, particular attention should be paid to the sharp rise in the production cost index, which reached its highest level since October 2022, driven by a sharp increase in the prices of oil, gas, and other raw materials in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, companies sought to pass on higher production costs to end consumers, which was reflected in the fastest rise in finished goods prices since January 2023. This signals significant upward pressure on consumer prices. We will present our revised mid-term inflation forecast in the upcoming MACROmap.
Both the level of the March PMI index and its composition indicate that the conflict in the Middle East has had only a limited impact on the activity of Polish manufacturing companies so far. Furthermore, the March PMI data does not indicate a significant deterioration in the outlook for this sector. The PMI index reflecting output expectations over a 12-month horizon stood at a historically high level in March, which was slightly lower than in January and February but higher than in December 2025. This indicates continued optimism among firms regarding production over the next year and a perception that tensions in the Middle East will be a temporary factor.
