Final GDP reading in line with flash estimate
The final estimate provided by Statistics Poland (GUS) has shown that GDP growth accelerated from 3.8% YoY in Q3 2025 to 4.0% YoY in Q4 2025, in line with the preliminary reading released three weeks ago. Seasonally-adjusted quarterly GDP growth accelerated from 0.9% in Q3 to 1.0% in Q4. The economic growth structure for Q4 matched our expectations formed by 2025 GDP data released earlier (see MACROpulse of 30/01/2026).
Consumption and inventories boosting the economic growth
In Q4, consumption remained the main economic growth factor, going up by 4.2% YoY, up from 3.5% in Q3. Consumption was boosted by the strongest real wage fund growth since Q4 2024 (6.5% YoY vs. 5.1% in Q3 2025). We expect the consumption momentum to slow in the quarters to come due to a slowdown of nominal wage growth amidst households’ elevated propensity to save, although it will remain relatively high. Our conclusion is underpinned by January’s solid retail sales data indicating a strong consumer demand (see MACROpulse of 23/02/2026).
The increase in the contribution of inventories from -1.0 pp in Q3 to -0.6 pp in Q4 was the strongest factor accelerating economic growth in Q4. The trend was consistent with the PMI survey results. The readings showed that manufacturing firms were reducing their inventories of both finished products and intermediate goods in Q4.
Weak growth in investments
Particularly noteworthy about the GDP data breakdown for Q4 2025 is the slowdown in investment growth to 4.7% YoY vs. 7.1% in Q3. Such a result is a major disappointment in light of the data indicating increased absorption of EU funds under the Multiannual Financial Framework and the National Recovery Plan suggested by data (see MACROmap of 19/01/2026). The result may reflect both a slower-than-expected growth in enterprises’ investments and a slower growth in public investments, which are marked by substantial quarter-to-quarter volatility. As regards the private sector, the picture shown above would be consistent with the results of the NBP Quick Monitoring, which indicates that businesses in Q4 2025 became less optimistic about investing. Furthermore, approx. 75% of enterprises do not plan to carry out any significant investments, mostly due to what they view as a sufficient scale of current operations and an uncertain demand outlook, which remains one of the main barriers to higher investment activity. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that poorer investment activity in the public sector, particularly in areas such as defense-related investments, where spending is highly irregular, also contributed to the disappointing result.
Foreign trade figures turn out negative, however
In accordance with the final data, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth in Q4 was negative (-0.2 pp. vs. 0.2 pp. in Q3), even though the full-year GDP data for 2025 suggested otherwise (+0.2 pp.). Domestic demand recovery (4.2% YoY in Q4 vs. 3.6% in Q3) was reflected in imports growth (8.7% YoY vs. 5.9% in Q3) being stronger than exports growth (7.7% YoY in Q4 vs. 6.1% in Q3).
Good outlook for 2026
We can expect the economic recovery in Poland to continue in the quarters to come, supported by a rapid growth in investments linked to projects co-financed with EU funds. Furthermore, we forecast that external demand will start to grow again along with the moderate recovery in the Eurozone, including Germany. At the same time, we have made no change to our economic growth forecast for 2026 (3.6%).
Today’s GDP data is neutral for the PLN and yields on Polish bonds.
