Industrial production growth normalises
According to data published by Statistics Poland (GUS), the volume of industrial production sold by enterprises employing more than 9 people increased by 3.1% YoY in April, compared with growth of 7.5% in March (revised down from 9.4%). Thus, production growth came in significantly below our forecast of 4.3% and the market consensus of 4.2%. A key factor driving down annual industrial production growth between March and April was the statistical effect in the form of an unfavourable difference in the number of working days (March 2026 had one working day more than March 2025, while April 2026 had the same number of working days as April 2025). Seasonally-adjusted industrial production shrank by 2.6% MoM in April.
Increased activity in construction sector boosts industry
Due to the significant revision (by almost 2 pp. downwards) of March production growth without the simultaneous publication of its detailed revised breakdown, and due to calendar effects, drawing conclusions about trends in industry is difficult. Based on the available data, however, it can be concluded that an important factor limiting the slowdown in production in April was growth in construction-related industries, including the manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products and fabricated metal products, supported by the recovery in activity in that sector (see below). In addition, it should be noted that in April, as in March, the production of intermediate goods continued to grow at a strong pace, most likely reflecting inventory build-up by companies amid the prolonging conflict in the Middle East.
Business survey results published today, namely PMIs for the Eurozone and Germany, signal that the outlook for Polish industry deteriorated in May. From the perspective of domestic exporters, the marked weakening in German manufacturing is particularly important, with output stagnating and new orders declining for the first time in four months.
Recovery in construction continues
Construction and assembly production increased by 4.5% YoY in April, compared with growth of 0.6% in March, coming in significantly above our forecast, which was equal to the market consensus (1.3%). It is worth noting that growth accelerated despite the unfavourable calendar effects mentioned above. Seasonally-adjusted construction and assembly production increased by 3.4% MoM in April, following growth of 6.2% in March. Thus, for the second consecutive month, we are seeing an improvement in construction after a period of reduced activity in January and February caused by the cold winter. The acceleration in construction and assembly production growth was broad-based. Annual construction and assembly production growth accelerated in all three main categories, namely “specialised construction activities” to 4.4% YoY in April from 0.7% in March, “civil engineering” to 3.9% from -0.2%, and “construction of buildings” to 5.2% from 1.3%. We expect construction and assembly production to continue its upward trend in the coming months (see MACROmap of 27/04/2026). This should be supported by the growing absorption of EU funds, which will peak in 2026. The abovementioned scenario is underpinned by the results of Statistics Poland’s April survey of construction sector companies’ expectations regarding domestic order books, which rose to their highest level since February 2024.
Wage growth slows, employment drops at a steady rate
In accordance with the GUS data published today, the employment growth rate in the enterprise sector remained stable between March and April, standing at -0.9% YoY, and aligning with market consensus and our forecast. The result is consistent with our assessment that the annual employment drop seen in the enterprise sector since Q4 2023 is largely connected with employees attaining retirement age. Nominal wage growth in enterprises employing more than 9 people slowed substantially, from 6.6% YoY in March to 5.4% in April, coming in markedly below the market consensus (6.1%) and our forecast (6.0%). Slower growth, and in some cases a decline in wages was reported in 10 out of 11 categories reported by the GUS. Wage growth has been repeatedly named by the MPC as an important factor influencing its decisions. Consequently, the April’s marked slowdown eases the pressure to tighten the monetary policy, and supports our scenario of no changes to interest rates at least until the end of 2027. Due rise in inflation (see MACROpulse of 15/05/2026), real wage growth fell from 3.9% YoY in March to 2.1% in April. Consequently, real wage fund growth slowed from 2.6% YoY in March to 1.1% in April, which was its lowest reading since July 2023. This underpins our forecast of consumption growth slowdown from 3.8% in Q1 to 2.5% in Q2.
The conflict in the Middle East remains the main risk factor for GDP growth
Today’s data on industrial production, construction and assembly production and wages and employment in the enterprise sector in April underpin our annual average GDP growth forecast for 2026 (3.3%). At the same time, further developments in the Middle Eastern conflict remain an important risk factor for economic growth in the quarters to come.
In our view, the overall tone of today’s data from the Polish economy is slightly negative for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.
