2025 GDP data in line with expectations
In accordance with the GUS data published today, Poland's GDP increased by 3.6% in 2025 vs. +3.0% in 2024, coming in line with market expectations and our forecast. Economic growth in 2025 accelerated primarily as a result of a marked recovery in terms of gross fixed capital formation, which went up by 4.2% YoY on average, back on the growth track after a 0.9% YoY drop in 2024, and boosted, among other factors, by gradual disbursement of EU funds, higher defense expenditures, and a stronger investment activity of enterprises. Another substantial GDP growth booster was the acceleration of private consumption growth, from 2.9% YoY in 2024 to 3.7% YoY in 2025, supported by continued decline in inflation and still-strong growth in real wages. A less negative contribution of net exports, resulting from gradual improvement in external demand also contributed to the acceleration of economic growth (by 0.9 pp.), with imports growing at a pace similar to that observed a year earlier. On the other hand, a strong reduction in inventories had a marked constraining impact on GDP growth in 2025, slowing it by an estimated almost 1 pp., which indicates that businesses were cautious about recovering their stocks amidst the elevated uncertainty about the demand outlook.
Economic growth markedly accelerated in Q4 2025…
Based on data published by the GUS, we estimate that the real GDP growth in Q4 2025 stood at approximately 4.0% YoY vs. 3.8% in Q3, which is slightly better than we expected (3.9%). However, it should be noted that our assessment is based on the assumption that the data for Q1-Q3 has not been revised by the GUS. The absence of such a revision would imply that economic growth in Poland accelerated markedly in Q4, boosted by consumption growth (stronger than we expected, from 3.5% YoY in Q3 to approx. 4.2% in accordance with our revised forecast) and a stronger contribution of inventories, which we assess to have risen from -1.0 pp. in Q3 to -0.8 pp. in Q4.
… but investments disappointed
Particularly noteworthy about the GDP data breakdown for Q4 2025 is the slowdown in investments to approx. 4.3% YoY vs. 7.1% in Q3 and our forecast of approx. +9% YoY. The actual result comes as a major disappointment in the light of the increased absorption of EU funds under the Multiannual Financial Framework and the National Recovery Plan suggested by data (see MACROmap of 19/01/2026). The result may reflect both a slower-than-expected growth in enterprises’ investments and a slower growth in public investments, which are characterised by substantial quarter-to-quarter volatility. As regards the private sector, the picture shown above would be consistent with the results of the NBP Quick Monitoring, which indicates that businesses in Q4 2025 were less optimistic about investment activity. Furthermore, approx. 75% of enterprises do not plan to carry out any significant investments, mostly due to what they view as a sufficient scale of current operations and an uncertain demand outlook, which continues to be one of the main barriers hampering the investment activity. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that poorer investment activity in the public sector, particularly in areas such as defense-related investments, where spending is highly irregular, also contributed to the disappointing result.
It will be possible to analyse the Q4 GDP growth structure in more detail when preliminary data on economic growth in that period is released (2 March). Today’s release of consistent-with-consensus GDP data for 2025 is neutral for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds in our view.
