Industrial production growth aligns with market expectations
Data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) shows that the volume of sold production in enterprises employing more than 9 people went up by 1.5% YoY in February, from -1.5% in January, coming in below our forecast (2.5%), but in line with market consensus. Year-on-year industrial production growth between January and February was driven up primarily by the statistical effect of a favourable difference in the number of working days (in January 2026, there was one day less than in the previous year, while in February 2026, the number of working days was the same as in February 2025). Seasonally-adjusted industrial production expanded by 0.6% MoM in February. Consequently, industrial production in February came in 3.1% below the global peak recorded last September.
A surprising production growth slowdown in export-oriented sectors
Industrial production growth accelerated in two of three main industry segments, i.e. construction-related sectors (-6.2% YoY in February vs. -10.0% in January) and non-export-oriented sectors unrelated to constructions (4.2% vs. -1.1%). In export-oriented branches, production slowed by 0.9% YoY after a 0.7% growth in January. Production decline in export-oriented sectors came as a huge surprise given the favourable calendar effects mentioned above and a marked improvement in the business climate in manufacturing seen in the Eurozone and Germany (see MACROmap of 23/02/2026). It indicates that the mild upward trend in orders seen over the last couple of months in the German industry after the deployment of a significant fiscal package has not translated into a marked increase in activity in the Polish manufacturing sector so far. Production growth in construction-related sectors accelerated despite a continued activity slowdown in the construction sector (see below), which is optimistic. A marked production growth was seen in particular in the “other non-metallic mineral products” (-11.5% YoY in February vs. -17.0% in January) and “fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment” (-3.7% vs. -6.6%) categories. What is also worth noting is the continued (since March 2025) growth in capital goods production (3.9% YoY in February vs. 5.9% in January). This indicates that the demand for capital goods is growing despite a low utilisation of production capacities in manufacturing, which can be linked to the restructuring processes carried out by the enterprises.
Construction and assembly production hits a 5-year low
Construction and assembly production declined by 13.7% YoY in February, after a 12.5% drop in January, printing below the market consensus (-7.6% YoY) and our forecast (-5.0%). Construction and assembly production in February declined despite the statistical effect of a favourable difference in the number of working days mentioned above. Seasonally-adjusted construction and assembly production shrank by 3.8% MoM in February. Thus, activity in the construction sector hit a 5-year low. Construction and assembly production growth slowed in the “specialised construction activities” (-12.2% YoY in February vs. -11.8% in January) and “civil engineering works” (-11.7% vs. -7.7%) categories, but accelerated in the “construction of buildings” category (-16.7% vs. -18.3%). February production data indicates that construction sector’s activity was heavily influenced by adverse weather conditions, which did not improve enough compared to January to reverse a downward trend in that sector. Our conclusion is underpinned by a relatively strong slowdown of production growth in the “civil engineering works” (including roads and bridges) category. According to Statistics Poland, activity in that category depends on weather conditions the most. We anticipate that construction and assembly production will be back on the upward trajectory in March, supported by the growing absorption of EU funds, which will peak in 2026. The abovementioned scenario is underpinned by the February results of the survey of construction sector companies done by Statistics Poland to analyse their expectations for the volume of the domestic orders portfolio, which rose to reach the highest level since February 2024.
Wage growth stabilisation in February
In accordance with the GUS data published today, the employment growth rate in the enterprise sector remained stable between January and February, standing at -0.8% YoY, and aligning with market consensus and our forecast. In monthly terms, employment dropped by 2.4k in February, which is slightly better when compared with February results reported between 2023 and 2025. This result is consistent with our assessment saying that the annual employment drop continuing in the enterprise sector since Q4 2023 is largely connected with employees attaining retirement age. In turn, nominal wage growth in enterprises employing more than 9 people did not change between January and February, and stood at 6.1% YoY, which was below the market consensus (6.6%) and our forecast (7.1%). Real wage growth did not change, either, compared with January (3.9% YoY). The strongest downward impact on wage growth in February was exerted by a slower growth in wages in the mining sector (-2.7% YoY vs. 5.4% in January), which is subject to a substantial impact of variable remuneration component fluctuations. The aforementioned factor slowed the annual wage growth by 0.2 pp. vs. January. Like for January, also the data for February has indicated that the wage pressure in the enterprise sector is easing. We anticipate that the pressure will rise again, prompted by the strong inflationary impulse related to the oil shock caused by the developments in the Middle East.
Substantial downside risk to GDP growth forecast for 2026
Today’s data on industrial production, construction and assembly production, and wages and employment in the enterprise sector in February combined with the data on economic activity in January carry a substantial downside risk to our economic growth forecast for Q1 (3.9% YoY vs. 4.0% in Q4) and the entire 2026 (3.6%). Our new macroeconomic scenario, taking into consideration the impact of the situation in the Middle East on the prices of commodities, inflation, economic growth, interest rates and PLN trajectory will be published in our next MACROmap on Monday.
We believe that the overall tone of today’s data from Polish economy is slightly negative for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.
