Retail sales growth accelerates
According to the data published today by Statistics Poland (GUS), nominal retail sales growth in enterprises employing more than 9 persons increased to 4.3% YoY in February from 3.9% in January, coming in below the market consensus (5.3%) and our forecast (4.9%). Growth in retail sales at constant prices also increased, to 5.0% YoY in February from 4.4% in January, and was likewise below the market consensus (5.9%) and our forecast (5.5%). Retail sales growth was supported by positive calendar effects (in January 2026, there was 1 fewer working day than in January 2025, whereas in February 2026 the number of working days was the same as in February 2025), low base effects and a partial easing of adverse weather conditions (see below). After seasonal adjustment, retail sales at constant prices decreased by 1.1% MoM in February.
Better weather supported retail sales
Compared with the very cold January, weather conditions improved markedly in February. The average temperature was higher than in January, and in the last week of the month it remained well above 0°C. The easing of harsh winter conditions increased household mobility and households’ willingness to make purchases. As a result, retail sales growth at constant prices accelerated in the categories of “motor vehicles, motorcycles and parts” (2.7% YoY in February vs. -4.5% in January), “solid, liquid and gaseous fuels” (10.2% vs. 4.7%) and “other” (9.4% vs. 0.9%). At the same time, following increased purchases of winter clothing in January, a decline in growth was recorded in the “textiles, clothing and footwear” category in February (to 0.8% YoY from 17.7%).
Conflict in the Middle East as a risk factor for consumption
Today’s data confirmed our assessment presented a month ago (see MACROpulse of 23/02/2026) that adverse weather conditions had a temporary negative impact on retail sales and that households’ propensity to consume remains elevated. It is worth noting that the consumer confidence indicator concerning “making major purchases” declined only slightly in March and remains at a high level. In this context, however, it should be stressed that survey results are likely to reflect the deterioration in consumer sentiment related to the military conflict in the Middle East only to a limited extent (the interviews were conducted between 2 and 11 March). We believe that the strong increase in prices expected in our revised macroeconomic scenario for Poland (see today’s MACROmap), which reduces consumers’ real purchasing power, will weigh on retail sales and consumption. At the same time, we expect households to smooth their consumption path, i.e. to adjust their spending only partially to the temporary decline in income by using savings accumulated earlier. Consequently, we forecast that private consumption growth will decline from 3.8% YoY in Q1 to 2.5% in Q2, and will amount to 2.6% on average in 2026, compared with 3.7% in 2025.
In our view, the February retail sales data are slightly negative for the PLN and bond yields.
