Marked slowdown of retail sales growth in June
In accordance with the data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) today, nominal retail sales growth rate reported by businesses with more than 9 employees came in at 2.1% YoY in June, down from 4.3% in May, printing markedly below the market consensus (4.7%) and our forecast (3.5%). The growth in retail sales at constant prices also slowed, from 4.4% YoY in May to 2.2% in June, printing below the market consensus (4.1%) and our forecast (3.5%). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices went up by 0.7% between May and June. Nonetheless, despite the sales growth seen in June, sales volumes were still below their global peak reported last April.
Slowing growth in durable goods sales
Growth in retail sales at constant prices in June was slowed primarily by a slower sales growth in durable goods’ categories: “motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts” (7.7% YoY vs. 15.7% in May) and “furniture, electronic goods and household appliances” (10.2% vs. 18.9%). However, in our view, the outlook for demand for durable goods is still bright despite the markedly slower sales growth in those categories in June. Our conclusion is underpinned by consumer confidence indicators, which suggest that households are relatively strongly inclined to make major purchases, and relatively highly likely to buy cars in a 12-month horizon, and by our medium-term consumption growth forecasts supported by the real wage fund, which is growing at a moderate rate (see MACROmaps of 21/07/2025 and 30/06/2025). Retail sales growth in June was also driven down by a marked slowdown in the “food, non-alcoholic beverages and tobacco” category (-1.0% vs. 1.5%), which in our view could suggest that the sales growth is normalising after a period of strong volatility connected with calendar effects (see MACROpulse of 24/06/2025). One of the main reasons behind the persistent downward trend in this category is a relative growth in demand for foods seen in non-specialised (large-area) stores at the expense of sales at small, specialised stores.
Slight downside risk to Q2 consumption growth
Retail sales data for June is indicative of a slight downside risk to our forecast of consumption growth in Q2 (3.3% YoY vs 2.5% in Q1). Nonetheless, we still believe that consumption recovery seen currently in Poland will be lasting, and will remain the most stable driver of Polish GDP growth in the quarters to come.
Today’s data on retail sales in June is slightly negative for the PLN and the yields on bonds.
