Sales growth slows in line with expectations
In accordance with the data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) today, nominal retail sales growth rate reported by businesses with more than 9 employees came in at 3.0% YoY in August, down from 4.8% in July, which was below the market consensus (3.3%) and our forecast (3.2%). Growth in retail sales at constant prices went down, too, from 4.8% YoY in July to 3.1% in August, printing below the market expectations, which were consistent with our forecast (3.3%). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices went up by 0.7% between July and August. Consequently, they remain below their global peak recorded in April 2025.
Consumer sentiment continues to improve
The slowdown of retail sales growth at constant prices between July and August was driven by the statistical effect of an unfavourable difference in the number of working days and the slowdown of real wage fund growth in the sector of enterprises (see MACROpulse of 18/09/2025). Sales growth in August was driven down by a slower growth in most categories of sales, except for “solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels”, “textiles, clothing and footwear” and “miscellaneous”. A strong growth in sales persisted in durable goods categories: “motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts” (9.4% YoY in August vs. 10.7% in July) and “furniture, electronic goods and household appliances” (13.9% vs. 15.3%). It is consistent with our scenario, in which the outlook for demand for durable goods remains favourable. Our scenario is underpinned by a marked rise of the GUS consumer confidence indicator demonstrating the households’ willingness to make major purchases, which reached the highest value since June 2025 in September. At the same time, the six-month moving average of growth in the so-called core sales (i.e. sales excluding cars, fuels and food) in August reached the highest value since January 2023, which is indicative of the durability of consumption demand recovery.
Geopolitical situation as risk factor for consumption
Retail sales data supports our scenario that the ongoing consumption recovery in Poland, boosted by a moderately strong growth in real wage fund is sustainable, and will remain the most stable driver of Polish GDP growth in the quarters to come (see MACROmap of 08/09/2025). Nonetheless, we can see a downside risk to our consumption growth forecast for the coming quarters, stemming from the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the wake of violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones, which can increase the households’ propensity to save. We will only be able to assess the risk more thoroughly after the consumer confidence indicators for October are published.
Today’s data on retail sales in August is neutral for the PLN and the yields on bonds.
