Retail sales extend record run
According to the Statistics Poland (GUS) data released today, annual nominal retail sales growth in enterprises employing more than 9 people slowed to 2.8% YoY in November from 5.5% in October, coming in well below the market consensus (3.8%) and slightly above our forecast (2.5%). Retail sales growth in constant prices eased to 3.1% YoY in November from 5.4% in October and was lower than the market consensus (3.9%) but higher than our forecast (2.5%). The main factors behind the slowdown in retail sales growth were adverse calendar effects (in October 2025 the number of working days was the same as in October 2024, while in November 2025 there was one day fewer than in November 2024) and last year’s high base effect. Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices went up by 1.1% MoM in November. As a result, similarly to October, November sales came in at the highest level on record.
Favourable consumer sentiment supports demand for durable goods
Given the calendar effects mentioned above and last year’s elevated base, a decline in real retail sales growth was recorded in most major categories. One standout in the data was the faster growth in the “textiles, clothing and footwear” category (12.2% YoY in November vs 9.0% in October). In our view, this acceleration was driven by adverse weather conditions in November this year, which translated into strong demand (relative to last year) for items from winter collections. It is also worth noting the quicker rise in sales in the “furniture, electronic goods and household appliances” category (16.6% YoY in November vs 13.9% in October). Persistently strong growth in this category aligns with GUS consumer sentiment results, which point to households’ rising propensity to make “major purchases” (in November, this indicator reached its highest level since March 2020, i.e. the pre-pandemic period), as well as households’ assessment of their income situation (according to CBOS surveys, in November the share of respondents assessing their household’s material conditions as good stood at 67%, the highest on record). This is consistent with our scenario in which the outlook for demand for consumer durables-supported by the expected increase in the real wage fund-remains favourable. We expect that in 2026 demand for durables will additionally be supported by a marked rise in the number of dwellings completed (see MACROmap of 6/10/2025).
Consumption growth close to GDP growth
We estimate that the six-month moving average for growth in so-called core retail sales (i.e. sales excluding cars, fuels and food) remained at a historically high level (5.4% YoY in November, unchanged from October). This suggests that the recovery in consumer demand is lasting.
Retail sales and consumer sentiment data support our scenario in which consumption will remain a stable source of GDP growth in Poland in the coming quarters. Today’s November sales data are consistent with our forecast for consumption growth in Q4 (3.5% YoY vs 4.5% in Q3), which we expect to be close to GDP growth (3.8% YoY, unchanged vs Q3).
Today’s November retail sales data are slightly negative for the PLN and yields on Polish bonds.
