Retail sales reach all-time high
In accordance with the data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) today, nominal retail sales growth reported by businesses having more than 9 employees fell from 6.6% YoY in September to 5.5% in October, printing markedly above the market consensus, which was consistent with our forecast (4.0%). The growth in retail sales at constant prices also slowed, from 6.4% YoY in September to 5.4% in October, and that was also markedly above the market consensus (3.7%) and our forecast (3.6%). Retail sales growth was mostly slowed by the impact of last year’s high base effects and an unfavourable difference in the number of working days (in September 2025, there was 1 working day more than in September 2024, while in October 2025 the number of working days was the same as in October 2024). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices went up in October by 1.9% MoM, which means that sales in October reached an all-time high.
Households demonstrate the highest propensity to make “major purchases” since March 2020.
Real retail sales growth slowed in most major categories due to the impact of calendar effects and last year’s high base that has been mentioned above. Notably, the data breakdown has shown that sales accelerated in the “motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts” category (15.6% YoY in October vs. 15.0% in September). The continued, strong sales growth in this category is consistent with the consumer confidence survey results showing the increasing propensity of households to make major purchases (in October, the relevant index increased again), and in November it reached the highest level since the outbreak of the pandemic in March 2020. It is consistent with our scenario, in which the outlook for demand for durable goods remains favourable. At the same time, the six-month moving average of growth in the so-called core sales (i.e. sales excluding cars, fuels and food) remained historically high in October, coming in at 5.4% YoY vs. 5.5% in September. It indicates that the recovery in consumer demand will be lasting.
We expect consumption to grow steadily
Retail sales data support our scenario that consumption will remain a stable driver of Polish GDP growth in the quarters to come. At the same time, today’s data on October retail sales carries an upside risk to our consumption forecast for Q4 (3.5% YoY vs. 4.0% in Q3). We will be able to assess that risk more thoroughly when we see the GDP data breakdown for Q3 (the data is going to be released next week).
Today’s data on retail sales in October is slightly positive for the PLN and the yields on bonds.
