Industrial production data well below expectations
According to Statistics Poland (GUS), the volume of sold production in enterprises employing more than 9 people declined by 1.1% YoY in November after rising by 3.3% YoY in October (upward revision from 3.2%), coming in well below the market consensus (2.7%) and our forecast (1.5%). Annual industrial production growth between October and November was largely driven down by the statistical effect of an unfavourable difference in the number of working days (in October 2025 the number of days was the same as in October 2024, while in November 2025 there was one day fewer than in the previous year). A slowdown in industrial activity was also signalled by GUS business sentiment survey results for November. Seasonally-adjusted industrial production shrank by 1.6% MoM in November.
Poland’s industrial production under mounting pressure from China
Because of these adverse calendar effects, the growth rate of industrial production declined across all three main segments of industry: export-oriented sectors (-0.6% YoY in November vs 2.2% in October), construction-related sectors (0.6% vs 5.3%) and other sectors (-1.7% vs 3.3%). What is also worth noting is the continued (since March 2025) growth in capital goods production (3.7% YoY in November vs. 9.2% in October). In our view, it mainly stems from corporate investment aimed at restructuring and improving efficiency. This is consistent with our forecast that total investment will rise by 8.5% in 2026, up from 5.8% in 2025. Particularly noteworthy is the relatively sharp decline in industrial production growth in categories such as “clothing”, “products of wood, cork, straw and wicker”, “printing and reproduction”, “electrical equipment”, “computers, electronic and optical products”, and “chemicals and chemical products”. In our assessment, weaker activity in these categories is linked to mounting competition from China, which is reorienting its exports geographically amid difficulties selling its goods to the US (see MACROmap of 15/12/2025).
Construction activity remains subdued
Construction and assembly production growth declined to 0.1% YoY in November from 4.1% in October, coming in below the market consensus (2.4%) and above our forecast (-2.0%). A key factor contributing to the slowdown was the above-mentioned statistical effect related to the unfavourable difference in the number of working days. The decline between October and November was also driven by a high base effect (seasonally-adjusted construction and assembly production rose by 2.9% MoM in November 2024). Seasonally-adjusted construction and assembly production fell by 0.9% MoM in November.
Awaiting a rebound in public investment
Construction and assembly production growth accelerated in “specialised construction activities” (18.9% YoY in November vs 7.8% in October) and “construction of buildings” (8.0% vs 2.4%), while it declined in “civil engineering work” (-12.8% vs 3.2%). We maintain our scenario that the EU funds that Poland is receiving under the National Recovery Plan and Multi-Annual Financial Framework for 2021-2027 will be boosting activity in the construction sector in the quarters to come. Public investments in infrastructure will be the main driver of construction and assembly production growth, which will also be supported by housing investment (see MACROmap of 06/10/2025). However, given the low level of utilisation of production capacities, the role of corporate investment as a factor improving the activity in the construction sector will remain limited.
November brought an increase in employment
According to GUS data published today, employment growth in the enterprise sector was unchanged in November compared to October at -0.8% YoY, coming in above market expectations and our forecast (-0.9%). In monthly terms, employment rose by 9.3k people. The rise was concentrated in four categories: ”manufacturing” (+2.7k), “administrative and support service activities” (+2.7k), “trade and; repair of motor vehicles” (+2.0k) and “transport and warehousing management” (+1.1k). Despite the increase in November, employment in Poland’s enterprise sector continues to be constrained by adverse supply-side factors related the shrinking of the labour force as the baby boom generation reaches retirement age (see MACROmaps of 17/11/2025 and 24.11.2025). We anticipate that the downward trend in employment seen over the last couple of quarters in the business sector will continue in the coming quarters.
Slowdown in wage growth in transport proved temporary
Nominal wage growth in the sector of enterprise employing more than 9 people rose to 7.1% YoY in November from 6.6% in October, coming in above the market consensus and our forecast (6.3%). The increase between October and November was driven primarily by stronger wage growth in the “transport and warehousing management” category (11.1% YoY in November vs 2.4% in October). This confirms that the fall in wage growth in this category recorded in October was temporary (see MACROpulse of 24/11/2025). In real terms, wage growth in companies accelerated from 3.7% YoY in October May to 4.5% in November. Consequently, real wage fund growth increased to 3.7% YoY in November from 2.8% in October and 3.4% on average in Q3, which underpins our forecast that consumption growth will remain unchanged in Q4 compared to Q3 at 3.5% YoY.
We maintain our GDP growth forecast
The November data on industrial production, construction and assembly production, and wages and employment in the enterprise sector released today pose a material downside risk to our GDP growth forecast for Q4 (3.8% YoY, unchanged from Q3) and for 2025 as a whole (3.6% vs 3.0% in 2024). It should be noted, however, that these figures do not take into account activity in services, which may offset weaker performance in industry. We believe that the overall tone of today’s data from Polish economy is slightly negative for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.
