Calendar effects held back growth of industrial production
According to data published by Statistics Poland (GUS), the volume of industrial production sold by enterprises employing more than 9 people rose by 0.7% YoY in August, compared with a 3.0% growth in July (upward revision from 2.9%), printing below the market consensus (1.0%) and our forecast (0.8%). A key factor behind the weaker growth of industrial production between July and August was the statistical effect of an unfavourable difference in the number of working days (in August 2025, there was one working day fewer than in August 2024, whereas in July 2025 the number of working days was the same as in July 2024). Seasonally-adjusted industrial production went down by 0.1% MoM in August, confirming the industrial stagnation seen in recent months.
Because of these unfavourable calendar effects, industrial production growth slowed across all three main industry segments, i.e. export-oriented sectors (0.9% YoY in August vs. 3.9% YoY in July), construction-related sectors (2.3% vs. 4.7%) and other sectors (0.3% vs. 2.1%). The sharpest slowdown among major categories was recorded in the “vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers” category (-4.2% YoY vs. 11.6% in July). Activity in this category may also have been constrained by a shift (relative to 2024) in the timing of summer shutdowns at automotive factories. We believe the industrial stagnation observed in recent months is slowly coming to an end. Supporting factors for the Polish industry will include increasingly strong signs of recovery in the Eurozone manufacturing, including Germany. Eurozone and German manufacturing PMIs reached their highest levels since June 2022 in August. Moreover, for the Eurozone, the index exceeded the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction for the first time in three years.
Construction activity slows down
Construction and assembly production growth fell from 0.6% in July to -6.9% in August, printing well below our forecast (0.1%) and the market consensus (0.4%) Similarly to industrial production, the main driver of the decline was adverse calendar effects. Construction and assembly production growth slowed in the “specialised construction activities” (-0.3% YoY in August vs. 9.5% in July), “construction of buildings” (-4.1% vs. -1.3%) and the “civil engineering works” (-12.8% vs. -3.4%) categories. This data breakdown still points to a lack of clear signals of marked recovery in public investment. After adjusting for seasonal effects, construction and assembly production decreased by 4.0% MoM in August, reaching its lowest level since April 2021, signalling a significant slowdown in construction. The data also pose a downside risk to our forecasts for public investment and total investment growth (5.5% YoY in Q3 vs. -1.0% in Q2).
We have not changed our view, though, that the EU funds that Poland is receiving under the National Recovery Plan and Multi-Annual Financial Framework for 2021-2027 will be boosting activity in the construction sector in the quarters to come. We still expect infrastructure investment to be the main driver of construction and assembly production, with a limited role of households’ housing investment and corporate investment. In the short term, the improvement we expect is also signalled by stronger GUS business sentiment survey results in construction. The “expected domestic order book” indicator reached its highest level since March 2025 in August.
Employment falls sharply in manufacturing
In accordance with GUS data published today, the employment growth rate for the enterprise sector edged up from -0.9% YoY in July to -0.8% in August, in line with the market consensus and below our forecast (-0.7%). In monthly terms, employment fell by 12.4k people. The decline was concentrated in the manufacturing sector (-7.3k people), reflecting the restructuring that has been ongoing in the sector for the last couple of quarters and adverse supply-side factors (a shrinking labour supply and baby boomers reaching retirement age). We anticipate that the downward trend in employment seen over the last couple of quarters will continue in the months to come.
Surprising slowdown in wage growth
Nominal wage growth in the sector of Polish enterprises employing more than 9 people slowed from 7.6% YoY in July to 7.1% in August, coming in below the market consensus (7.8%) and our forecast (8.1%). The slowdown is particularly surprising given the fading of high base effects in “mining and quarrying” and “electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply”. Notably, lower wage growth was recorded in most categories reported by GUS. In real terms, wage growth in companies slowed from 4.3% YoY in July to 4.1% in August. Consequently, the real wage fund growth decreased to 3.2% YoY in August from 3.4% YoY in July and 3.8% in Q2. This supports our forecast, which assumes a slowdown in consumption growth to 4.0% YoY in Q3 from 4.4% in Q2.
We maintain our GDP growth forecast
The data on industrial production, construction and assembly production and wages and employment in the enterprise sector for August published today do not alter our GDP forecast for Q3 (3.8% YoY vs. 3.4% in Q2) or for the full year 2025 (3.6% vs 2.9% in 2024). We believe that the overall tone of today’s data from the Polish economy is slightly negative for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.
