End of stagnation in Polish industry
In accordance with GUS data, the volume of sold production in enterprises employing more than 9 people increased by 7.4% YoY in September vs. a 0.7% growth in August, which was markedly ahead of market consensus (5.0%) and our forecast (6.0%). Industrial production growth between August and September was primarily attributable to the statistical effect of a favourable difference in the number of working days (in August 2025, there was one day fewer than in August 2024, while in September 2025, there was one day more than in September 2024). Seasonally-adjusted industrial production increased by 4.1% MoM in September, reaching an all-time high. Consequently, our scenario assuming that increasingly strong signs of recovery in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector (including Germany) will be reflected in the industrial production recovery in Poland (see MACROpulse of 18/09/2025) has materialised.
Broad-based activity recovery in the Polish industry
Due to favourable calendar effects, industrial production growth accelerated in all three main industrial segments, i.e. export-oriented sectors (8.8% YoY in September vs. 0.9% in August), construction-related sectors (10.5% vs. 2.3%) and other sectors (6.0% vs. 0.3%). The increase in production was particularly strong in the “vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers” category (12.8% YoY in September vs. -4.2% in August), and it could have been boosted by the fading effect of the shift in the scheduled summer maintenance shutdown in automotive factories compared with 2024 (see MACROpulse of 18/09/2025). What is also worth noting is the continued (since March 2025) growth in capital goods production (16.0% YoY in September vs. 7.2% in August). In our view, it mainly stems from enterprises making investments related to their restructuring and efficiency-improvement processes. This is consistent with our forecast for total investments, which are projected to rise by 4.9% in 2025 and 8.0% in 2026, following a 0.9% drop in 2024.
Employment in the manufacturing sector keeps falling
In accordance with the GUS data published today, the employment growth rate in the enterprise sector remained stable between August and September, standing at -0.8% YoY, and aligning with market consensus and our forecast. In monthly terms, employment fell by 9.5k in September. The decline was seen predominantly in two categories: “manufacturing” (-3.8k) and “trade and repair of motor vehicles” (-4.5k). Employment in the Polish business sector is curbed by unfavourable supply factors related to the shrinking workforce, with baby boomers reaching the retirement age. We anticipate that the downward trend in employment seen over the last couple of quarters in the business sector will continue in the months to come.
Wage pressures stabilise
Nominal wage growth in enterprises employing more than 9 people went up from 7.1% YoY in August to 7.5% in September, came in line with market consensus and above our forecast (7.3%). It is worth noting that the nominal wage growth in all main segments is still strong, but it has reached a single-digit value, which indicates a stabilisation of wage pressures. In real terms, wage growth in companies accelerated from 4.1% YoY in August to 4.5% in September. Consequently, real wage fund growth accelerated from 3.2% YoY in August to 3.6% in September. In Q3, it went down to 3.4% YoY, from 3.8% in Q2, which underpins our forecast saying that consumption growth slowed from 4.4% YoY in Q2 to 4.0% in Q3.
Our GDP growth forecast remains unchanged
Today’s data on industrial production, and wages and employment in the enterprise sector for September do not change our economic growth forecast for Q3 (3.8% YoY vs. 3.4% in Q2) and 2025 (3.6% vs. 3.0% in 2024). We believe that the overall tone of today’s data from the Polish economy is slightly positive for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.
