Economic recovery continues in Q3
According to Statistics Poland’s (GUS) final estimate, GDP growth increased from 3.3% YoY in Q2 to 3.8% YoY in Q3, coming in slightly above the flash estimate (3.7%) and below our forecast (4.0%). Seasonally-adjusted GDP growth accelerated from 0.8% in Q2 to 0.9% in Q3. Consequently, GDP reached an all-time high in Q3.
Marked recovery in investment
The main driver of economic growth in Q3 was private consumption which, supported by rapid growth in the wage bill and falling inflation, grew by 3.5% YoY vs. 4.5% in Q2. Notably, the growth breakdown shows a significant revival in investment, which rose by 7.1% YoY (the fastest pace since Q4 2023 and above our 5.5% YoY forecast), following a 0.7% decline in Q2. In our view, the strong acceleration in gross fixed capital formation in Q3 was driven mainly by a recovery in public investment and an increase in corporate capital expenditure growth (see MACROmap of 1/12/2025). It is also worth noting the marked acceleration in export growth, with the growth rate rising from 1.9% YoY in Q2 to 6.1% in Q3 (the highest since Q1 2023). The Q3 export data thus point to the high resilience of Polish exports to the stagnation in the industrial manufacturing sector activity in Poland’s main trading partners, supported by the relatively high diversification of production in Poland’s industrial manufacturing sector compared with other countries in the region (see MACROmap of 1/12/2025). Export growth in Q3 accelerated more strongly than import growth, which increased the contribution of net exports to GDP growth from -0.7 pp in Q2 to 0.2 pp in Q3. In Q3, companies continued to build up inventories, but the increase in inventories was smaller than in Q3 2024, which led to a sharp fall in their contribution from 1.0 pp in Q2 to -1.0 pp in Q3. Overall, domestic demand, boosted by total consumption and investment, thus remained the main driver of growth in Q3.
Domestic demand will remain the main driver of economic growth
Turning to the quarters ahead, we expect economic growth in Poland to keep accelerating, driven by the expected economic recovery in the Eurozone and Poland’s increasing absorption of EU funds under the National Recovery Plan and the Cohesion Fund. We anticipate that domestic demand, underpinned by steady consumption growth and a rebound in investment, spurred by falling interest rates, to remain the main driver of economic growth in the coming quarters. Consequently, the recovery will be reflected in further increases in activity in the three main sectors – services (see MACROmap of 10/11/2025), industry and construction. Nevertheless, following today’s release we see a slight downside risk to our full-year 2025 GDP growth forecast (3.6%). We will present the revised growth breakdown for the coming quarters in Monday’s MACROmap.
Long-awaited increase in new export orders
Today’s PMI data on business conditions in manufacturing in November support the scenario of a continued economic recovery in Poland over the coming quarters. The PMI for Polish manufacturing rose to 49.1 pts in November (its highest level since April this year) from 48.8 pts in October, coming in slightly above the market consensus (49.0 pts) and slightly below our forecast (49.4 pts). In our view, the signals from the PMI report pointing to a continued recovery in Polish manufacturing include the increase in new export orders recorded in November (the first since March this year), a second consecutive rise in purchases of intermediate goods, and the persistently high level of the 12-month outlook for production. In addition, surveyed businesses cited “market expansion, new products, increased demand, company optimisation and production efficiency improvement” as factors likely to drive sales growth over a one-year horizon.
In our view, today’s Q3 GDP figures are neutral for the PLN and yields on bonds.
