Q3 GDP growth in line with consensus
In accordance with Statistics Poland’s (GUS) flash estimate, GDP growth in Poland increased from 3.3% YoY in Q2 to 3.7% YoY in Q3, which was consistent with market consensus and slightly below our forecast (4.0%). Seasonally-adjusted quarterly GDP growth did not change between Q2 and Q3, and stayed at 0.8%. The data published by the GUS is a flash estimate and the full GDP data including information on its structure will be published on 1 December.
Investments as the main driver of the recovery in economic growth
In our view, stronger growth in total gross fixed capital formation, driven by its three main components (companies’ investments, public investments and households’ investments), was the main source of the acceleration in economic growth in Q3. However, the data on construction and assembly production suggests that the recovery in public investments we anticipated could have been slower than we thought, and this could have been the reason behind the error in our Q3 GDP growth forecast.
Net exports also contributed to GDP growth acceleration in Q3. In our view, net exports growth increased slightly in Q3, supported by the economic recovery reported by Poland’s main trade partners. A negative impact on GDP growth came from a slight slowdown in consumption growth. However, given the solid retail sales and wage fund data, we think that consumption stayed somewhere around 4.0% YoY.
Slight downside risk to our GDP growth forecast
Turning to the quarters ahead, we expect economic growth in Poland to keep accelerating, driven by the expected economic recovery in the Eurozone and the increasing absorption by Poland of EU funds under the National Recovery Plan and the Cohesion Fund. Nonetheless, we believe that today’s data carries a slight downside risk to our GDP growth forecast for Q4 (3.8%) and 2025 (3.6%). We will present the revised breakdown of growth for the coming quarters once we have reviewed the detailed GDP data for Q3.
In our view, today’s Q3 GDP data, which is consistent with market consensus, is neutral for the PLN and yields on Polish bonds.
