Retail sales growth boosted by calendar effects
In accordance with the data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) today, nominal retail sales growth rate reported by businesses with more than 9 employees came in at 6.6% YoY in September, up from 3.0% in August, which was below the market consensus (7.2%) but above our forecast (4.9%). Growth in retail sales at constant prices went up, too, from 3.1% YoY in August to 6.4% in September, printing below the market consensus (6.8%) and above our forecast (4.9%). Retail sales growth was largely driven up by favourable calendar effects (in August 2025, there was one working day less than in the previous year, while in September 2025, there was one working day more than in September 2024). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices contracted by 0.6% MoM between August and September. Consequently, they remain below their global peak recorded in April 2025.
Demand for durable goods is growing
Real retail sales growth accelerated in all main categories thanks to favourable calendar effects. What is notable about the data breakdown is the continued, strong growth in sales in durable goods categories: “motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts” (15.0% YoY in September vs. 9.4% in August) and “furniture, electronic goods and household appliances” (16.1% vs. 13.9%). It is consistent with our scenario, in which the outlook for demand for durable goods remains favourable. Our scenario is underpinned by the continued rise of the GUS consumer confidence indicator demonstrating households’ willingness to make major purchases. At the same time, the six-month moving average of growth in the so-called core sales (i.e. sales excluding cars, fuels and food) in September reached the highest value since January 2023. It indicates that the consumer demand recovery is sustainable.
Sales data underpin our consumption scenario
Retail sales data supports our scenario that the ongoing consumption recovery in Poland, boosted by a moderately strong growth in real wage fund is sustainable, and will remain the most stable driver of Polish GDP growth in the quarters to come (see MACROmap of 08/09/2025). Consequently, we forecast that consumption growth in Q3 went down to 4.0% YoY, from 4.4% in Q2, and in 2025, it will accelerate to 3.6% from 2.9% in 2024. At the same time, the consumer confidence survey for October suggests that the risk of a material decline in consumer confidence and an increase in households’ propensity to save amidst elevated geopolitical tensions following the violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones, which we pointed to in September, has not materialised so far (see MACROpulse of 22/09/2025).
Today’s data on retail sales in September is neutral for the PLN and the yields on bonds.
