macropulse

• Surprising resilience of Polish manufacturing to the slowdown abroad

  20.02.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data, the dynamics of sold production of industry in enterprises employing more than 9 people rose to 6.1% YoY in January vs. 2.8% in December, running significantly above our forecast ...

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• Double-positive surprise in the labour market

  19.02.2019

  In accordance with GUS data published today, nominal wage dynamics in the sector of enterprises employing more than 9 persons amounted to 7.5 % YoY in January vs. 6.1% in December, running above our forecast (6.5%) and the market consensus (6.8%).. ...

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• Drop in energy prices has temporarily lowered inflation

  15.02.2019

  In accordance with GUS data, CPI inflation decreased to 0.9% YoY in January vs. 1.1% in December 2018, running below the market consensus (1.0%) and our forecast (1.2%). ...

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• Interest rates to remain unchanged though not until the end of the MPC term?

  07.02.2019

  As we expected, the Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate amounts to 1.50%). ...

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• Scale of demand weakening has surprised manufactures

  01.02.2019

  Polish manufacturing PMI rose to 48.2 pts in January vs. 47.6 pts December, running above the market consensus (47.8 pts) and our forecast (48.0 pts). Thus, the index has now for three months in a row been running below the 50 pts threshold dividing expansion from contraction of activity. ...

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• Surprising slowdown of investments growth in Q4 2018

  31.01.2019

  In accordance with flash GUS data published today, GDP in Poland rose by 5.1% in 2018 vs. 4.8% in 2017, running slightly above our forecast equal to the market expectations (5.0%). ...

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• Is this a beginning of a slowdown in private consumption growth?

  22.01.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data that have been released today, retail sales in enterprises employing more than 9 people increased in current prices by 4.7% YoY in December vs. an 8.2% increase in November, running ...

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• Economic growth is slowing down, wage pressure is decreasing

  18.01.2019

  In accordance with GUS data published today, nominal wage dynamics in the sector of enterprises employing more than 9 persons dropped to 6.1 % YoY in December from 7.7% in November, running way below our forecast (8.0%) and the market consensus (7.3%). ...

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• No inflation pressure in sight

  15.01.2019

  In accordance with the final GUS data, CPI inflation decreased to 1.1% YoY in December vs. 1.3% in November, running in line with the GUS flash estimate and our forecast equal to the market consensus. ...

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• NBP interest rates stable until the end of the MPC term?

  09.01.2019

  As we expected, the Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate amounts to 1.50%). ...

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