macropulse

• The second highest employment increase registered in March

  17.04.2019

  In accordance with GUS data published today, nominal wage dynamics in the sector of enterprises employing more than 9 persons amounted to 5.7% YoY in March vs. 7.6% in February, running significantly below our forecast (7.2%) equal to the market consensus. ...

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• Wide range of core inflation increase in March

  15.04.2019

  In accordance with GUS data, CPI inflation rose to 1.7% YoY in March vs. 1.2% in February, running in line with the GUS flash estimate. ...

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• Inflation impulse lurks around the corner?

  03.04.2019

  As we expected, the Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate amounts to 1.50%). ...

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• More data signaling upside risk to GDP growth

  21.03.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data that have been released today, retail sales in enterprises employing more than 9 people increased in current prices by 6.5% YoY in February vs. a 6.6% increase in January, running above the market consensus (6.3%) and below our forecast (6.8%). ...

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• Polish manufacturing still invulnerable

  20.03.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data, the dynamics of sold production of industry in enterprises employing more than 9 people rose to 6.9% YoY in February vs. 6.1% in January, running significantly above our forecast (3.5%) and the market consensus (4.8%). ...

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• Considerable increase in employment despite supply-side constraints

  19.03.2019

  In accordance with GUS data published today, nominal wage dynamics in the sector of enterprises employing more than 9 persons amounted to 7.6% YoY in February vs. 7.5% in January, running above our forecast (7.2%) in line with the market consensus. ...

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• Sharp increase in core inflation in February

  15.03.2019

  In accordance with GUS data, CPI inflation rose to 1.2% YoY in February vs. 0.7% in January (revised downwards from 0.9%), running slightly above the market consensus equal to our forecast (1.1%). ...

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• Fiscal package does not increase the probability of rate hikes

  07.03.2019

  As we expected, the Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate amounts to 1.50%). ...

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• Inventories in manufacturing grow at the fastest pace in 20 years

  01.03.2019

  Polish manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.6 pts in February vs. 48.2 pts January, running below the market consensus (48.2 pts) and our forecast (48.0 pts). Thus, the index has now for four months in a row been running below the 50 pts threshold dividing expansion from contraction of activity. ...

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• Surprising acceleration of exports in Q4

  28.02.2019

  In accordance with GUS data published today, real GDP growth rate stood at 4.9% YoY in Q4 2018 vs. 5.1% in Q3, running in line with our forecast and the flash estimate released by GUS on 14 February 2019.. ...

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