macropulse

• Surprisingly sharp decrease in employment in August

  18.09.2019

  According to GUS data published today, nominal wage dynamics in the sector of enterprises employing above 9 people amounted to 6.8% YoY in August vs. 7.4% in July, running below our forecast (7.0%) and above the market consensus (6.7%). ...

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• CPI inflation above the GUS flash estimate

  13.09.2019

  In accordance with the GUS final data, CPI inflation did not change in August compared to July and amounted to 2.9%, running in line with our forecast and above the GUS flash estimate equal to the market consensus (2.8%). ...

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• Sharp expected increase in minimum wage is neutral for MPC bias

  11.09.2019

  As we expected, the Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate amounts to 1.50%). ...

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• Poland on the path of decelerating economic growth

  30.08.2019

  In accordance with the GUS data published today, GDP growth rate stood at 4.5% YoY in Q2 vs. 4.7% in Q1, running above the flash estimate that was released earlier (4.4%). ...

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• Strong recovery in consumer demand continues

  22.08.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data that have been released today, retail sales in enterprises employing more than 9 people increased in current prices by 7.4% YoY in July vs. a 5.3% increase in June, running below our forecast (8.0% YoY) and slightly above the market ...

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• Industry no longer invulnerable

  21.08.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data, the dynamics of sold production of industry in enterprises employing more than 9 people rose to 5.8% YoY in July vs. -2.7% in June, running significantly below our forecast (7.5%) and the market expectations (6.6%). ...

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• Wage growth returned to the medium-term trend

  20.08.2019

  According to GUS data published today, nominal wage dynamics in the sector of enterprises employing above 9 people amounted to 7.4% YoY in July vs. 5.3% in June, running above our forecast (7.1%) equal to the market consensus. ...

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• Inflation goes up and economic growth slows down

  14.08.2019

  In accordance with GUS data, CPI inflation went up to 2.9% YoY in July vs. 2.6% in June, running in line with the GUS flash estimate and significantly above our forecast (2.5%) and the market expectations (2.7%). ...

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• Is this the end of the resilient manufacturing in Poland?

  01.08.2019

  Polish manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.4 pts in July vs 48.4 pts in June, running below the market consensus equal to our forecast (48.0pts). Thus, the index has now for nine months in a row been running below the 50 pts threshold dividing expansion from contraction of activity. ...

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• The constructors’ Eldorado has come to an end

  23.07.2019

  According to GUS data, the construction-assembly production dynamics dropped to -0.7% YoY in June vs. 9.7% in May, running significantly below our forecast (3.0%) and the market expectations (3.8%). ...

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