macropulse

• Inflation at 8-year high

  14.02.2020

  In accordance with the GUS final data, CPI inflation rose to 4.4% YoY in January vs. 3.4% in December 2019, running above the market consensus (4.1%) and slightly above our forecast (4.3%). ...

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• The MPC will not react to the temporary overshooting of the inflation target

  05.02.2020

  As we expected, the Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate amounts to 1.50%). The statement after the meeting has changed considerably to address the issue of inflation standing at an elevated level. ...

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• Polish economy slows down faster than expected

  29.01.2020

  In accordance with GUS data published today, GDP in Poland rose by 4.0% in 2019 vs. 5.1% in 2018, running below our forecast (4.2%) that was in line with the market expectations. ...

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• Slower consumption growth ahead

  23.01.2020

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data that have been released today, retail sales in enterprises employing more than 9 people increased in current prices by 7.5% YoY in December vs. a 5.9% increase in November. ...

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• The sharpest decline in production since December 2013

  22.01.2020

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data, the dynamics of sold production of industry in enterprises employing more than 9 people increased to 3.8% YoY in December vs. 1.4% in November. ...

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• Employment and wage dynamics continue to show a downward trend

  21.01.2020

  According to GUS data published today, nominal wage dynamics in the sector of enterprises employing above 9 people increased to 6.2% YoY in December vs. 5.3% in November, running slightly above the market consensus (6.1%) equal to our forecast. ...

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• Inflation is moving towards a peak

  15.01.2020

  In accordance with the GUS final data, CPI inflation rose to 3.4% YoY in December vs. 2.6% in November, running in line with the GUS flash estimate and significantly above the market consensus (2.9%) and our forecast (3.0%). ...

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• MPC holds neutral stance despite the December’s inflation shock

  08.01.2020

  As we expected, the Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate amounts to 1.50%). ...

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• Bittersweet data on the business climate in Polish manufacturing

  02.01.2020

  Polish manufacturing PMI rose to 48.0 pts in December vs. 46.7 pts in November, running above our forecast (46.5 pts) and the market consensus (46.8 pts). ...

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• New data confirm the slowdown of public investments

  23.12.2019

  According to GUS data, the construction-assembly production dynamics decreased by 4.7% YoY in November vs. 4.0% drop in October, running above our forecast (-6.0%) and below the market consensus (-4.4%). ...

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