macropulse

• Inflation goes up and economic growth slows down

  14.08.2019

  In accordance with GUS data, CPI inflation went up to 2.9% YoY in July vs. 2.6% in June, running in line with the GUS flash estimate and significantly above our forecast (2.5%) and the market expectations (2.7%). ...

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• Is this the end of the resilient manufacturing in Poland?

  01.08.2019

  Polish manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.4 pts in July vs 48.4 pts in June, running below the market consensus equal to our forecast (48.0pts). Thus, the index has now for nine months in a row been running below the 50 pts threshold dividing expansion from contraction of activity. ...

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• The constructors’ Eldorado has come to an end

  23.07.2019

  According to GUS data, the construction-assembly production dynamics dropped to -0.7% YoY in June vs. 9.7% in May, running significantly below our forecast (3.0%) and the market expectations (3.8%). ...

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• Calendar effects have temporarily slowed down retail sales

  19.07.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data that have been released today, retail sales in enterprises employing more than 9 people increased in current prices by 5.3% YoY in June vs. a 7.3% increase in May. ...

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• Production decline is wide ranging yet export branches fare surprisingly well

  18.07.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data, the dynamics of sold production of industry in enterprises employing more than 9 people dropped to -2.7% YoY in June vs. 7.7% in May. ...

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• Real wage growth rate slowest since April 2017

  17.07.2019

  According to GUS data published today, nominal wage dynamics in the sector of enterprises employing above 9 people amounted to 5.3% YoY in June vs. 7.7% in May, running significantly below our forecast (7.2%) and the market consensus (7.0%). ...

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• Increasing cost pressure in the Polish economy

  15.07.2019

  In accordance with GUS data, CPI inflation went up to 2.6% YoY in June vs. 2.4% in May, running in line with the GUS flash estimate equal to our forecast and above the market expectations (2.4%). ...

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• Dovish stance of major central banks does not change the MPC bias

  04.07.2019

  As we expected, the Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate amounts to 1.50%). ...

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• Effect of Easter and May holidays caused slowdown of retail sales

  24.06.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data that have been released today, retail sales in enterprises employing more than 9 people increased in current prices by 7.3% YoY in May vs. a 13.6% increase in April, running below our ...

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• Polish industry still invulnerable

  21.06.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data, the dynamics of sold production of industry in enterprises employing more than 9 people dropped to 7.7% YoY in May vs. 9.2% in April, running slightly above the market consensus (7.3%) and our forecast (7.2%). ...

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