Final GDP reading slightly ahead of the flash estimate
The final estimate by Statistics Poland (GUS) shows that GDP growth slowed from 4.1% YoY in Q4 2025 to 3.5% YoY in Q1 2026, printing slightly above the flash estimate published in May (3.4%). Seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.6% QoQ in Q1, compared with 1.0% in Q4.
Consumption remains the main driver of economic growth
In Q1, consumption went up by 3.3% YoY vs. 4.3% in Q4, remaining the main driver of economic growth. Consumption was supported by still strong growth in the real wage fund (5.1% YoY vs. 6.5% in Q4 2025) and the calendar effect of Easter falling earlier in 2026 than in 2025 (see MACROpulse of 23/04/2026).
We maintain our view that elevated inflation, which reduces consumers’ real purchasing power, will weigh on consumption in the coming quarters. At the same time, we anticipate that households will smooth their consumption, which means that they will only partially adjust their expenses to a transitional drop in income, using the savings accumulated earlier.
Weak investment growth
Particularly noteworthy about the GDP data breakdown for Q1 2026 is the slowdown in investments to 2.4% YoY vs. 6.6% in Q4. The result is highly disappointing given the data released last week, which indicated that investments made by enterprises with 50+ employees kept growing at a relatively strong rate (8.7% YoY in Q1 vs. 8.8% in Q4, see MACROmap of 01/06/2026). We believe that gross fixed capital formation in Q1 was constrained primarily by a decline in infrastructure investment resulting from the harsh winter. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that weaker investment activity in the public sector, in areas characterized by highly irregular spending patterns, such as defence-related investment, also contributed to the disappointing result.
Neutral contributions of inventories and foreign trade
The contribution of net exports in Q1 was 0.0 pp. vs. -0.3 pp. in Q4. Weaker domestic demand growth (3.7% YoY in Q1 vs. 4.6% in Q4) was reflected in imports growth slowdown (6.1% YoY in Q1 vs. 8.8% in Q4). At the same time, the deterioration in global economic conditions was conducive to a slowdown in exports (5.6% YoY in Q1 vs. 7.6% in Q4). The contribution of the change in inventories to GDP growth in Q1 also stood at 0.0 pp. However, given that their contribution in Q4 was significantly negative (-0.9 pp.), inventories were the factor that contributed most to the acceleration of economic growth between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
Moderately optimistic outlook for 2026
Turning to the quarters ahead, we expect economic growth in Poland to remain moderately fast, driven by increasing absorption of EU funds under the National Recovery Plan, the Cohesion Fund, and the SAFE programme. Further developments in the Middle Eastern conflict remain a significant downside risk factor for the economic growth outlook due to its impact on energy commodity prices and global supply chains. In the next MACROmap, we will present the revised economic growth forecast for the coming quarters, taking into consideration the Q1 GDP data breakdown published today.
Today’s GDP data is neutral for the PLN and yields on Polish bonds.
