Strong retail sales growth in June
Nominal retail sales growth in enterprises employing more than 9 people went up from 4.4% YoY in May to 6.8% in June, coming in markedly ahead of market consensus and our forecast (5.6%). Growth in retail sales at constant prices also went up, from 3.0% YoY in May to 6.2% in June, and also printed substantially above the market consensus and our forecast (5.1%). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices in June went up by 1.7% MoM. As a result, retail sales in June stood just 0.8% below the all-time high recorded in March this year.
Sales data breakdown points to a sustained recovery in consumer demand
Particularly noteworthy about the retail sales data breakdown for June is the strong growth in categories comprising durable goods. Sales of “motor vehicles, motorcycles and parts” increased by 9.6% YoY in terms of constant prices, compared with 2.1% in May, marking the strongest growth since December 2025. At the same time, sales in the “furniture, consumer electronics and household appliances” category jumped to 14.8% YoY, from 4.5% in May, the strongest growth since December 2025. The strong pickup in demand for durable goods points to a sustained recovery in consumer demand, supported by continued real wage fund growth in the enterprise sector (see MACROpulse of 20/07/2026). The high growth rates recorded by core retail sales measures also suggest that household demand for consumer goods is likely to keep growing fast. According to our estimates, the core sales growth excluding food and fuels accelerated to 7.5% YoY in June, from 4.0% in May, while sales growth excluding the two durable goods categories mentioned above picked up to 5.1% YoY, from 2.9% in May.
Consumer sentiment at its strongest since March 2020
Favourable consumer sentiment is providing further evidence of the durability of consumer demand recovery. In June, the indicators measuring households’ assessment of current and expected conditions for making “major purchases” remained relatively high. Notably, in July, the indicator measuring households’ willingness to make “major purchases” over the next 12 months increased sharply, reaching its highest level since March 2020 (the GUS survey was conducted on 2-11 March 2020, before the introduction of stringent COVID-related restrictions). This points to favourable prospects for consumer demand in the months ahead.
Upside risk to our Q2 GDP and consumption growth forecasts
The June retail sales data and July consumer sentiment indicators released today suggest that the adverse impact of the conflict in the Middle East on households’ propensity to consume remains limited. Today's data point to a slight upside risk to our Q2 consumption growth forecast (2.8% YoY vs. 3.3% in Q1). Combined with the June industrial production and construction and assembly production data released earlier (see MACROpulse of 20/07/2026), they also point to a substantial upside risk to our Q2 GDP growth forecast (3.0% YoY vs. 3.5% in Q1).
In our view, the overall tone of today’s data from Polish economy is slightly positive for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.
