Interest rates remain unchanged
Today, the Monetary Policy Council has decided to keep the interest rates unchanged, with the NBP reference rate standing at 3.75%. The MPC’s decision was consistent with both our forecast and market expectations. In its press release published after the meeting, the Council reiterated that “the outlook for global activity and inflation is subject to uncertainty, stemming, in particular, from the conflict in the Middle East”. The Council noted that CPI inflation rose to 3.4% YoY in August, from 3.0% YoY in July, driven primarily by the rise in the annual growth in prices of fuels for personal transport equipment.
The Council also reiterated its assessment that further decisions will depend on incoming information regarding prospects for inflation and economic activity. The Council again identified “the shape of fiscal policy, changes in activity growth of the Polish economy and further developments in wage growth” as main risks to the inflation outlook. In the Council’s view, “macroeconomic situation abroad, including developments in global commodity prices and inflation, amid changing geopolitical context” is a particularly important factor in interest rate decisions.
Q4 rate hike remains the most likely scenario
In our view, the tone of the statement following the September MPC meeting has not changed since July. However, the Council once again did not show any signs of readiness to resume the interest rate cutting cycle. We maintain our scenario in which the MPC will tighten monetary policy in Q4 2026, most likely following the release of the new inflation projection in November. NBP Governor A. Glapiński previously indicated that inflation remaining persistently above the upper band for admissible deviations from the target (2.5% +/- 1 pp) would be an important argument for considering rate hikes, and our current inflation trajectory meets this condition for several consecutive quarters (see MACROmap of 07/09/2026). We therefore expect the reference rate to be raised by 25 bp in Q4 2026, to 4.00%. With inflationary pressures expected to ease in H2 2027, the MPC is likely to reverse this move, cutting the reference rate by 25 bp in both Q3 and Q4 2027, to a target level of 3.50%. A. Glapiński’s press conference tomorrow should shed more light on the monetary policy outlook.
In our view, today’s decision of the MPC to keep the interest rates unchanged and the text of the press release published after the meeting are neutral for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.
