Industrial production in June slightly ahead of expectations
According to Statistics Poland (GUS), the sold production of industry in enterprises employing more than nine people increased by 7.6% YoY in June, compared with 4.1% in May. As a result, industrial production growth came in below our forecast (8.0%) but above the market consensus (7.2%). Industrial activity was supported by a favourable working-day effect, with June 2026 having one more working day than June 2025, whereas the number of working days in May 2026 was the same as in May 2025. Seasonally-adjusted industrial production edged up by 0.1% MoM in June, pointing to a continuation of the modest upward trend in industrial activity.
Intermediate goods production records strongest growth since March 2022
Industrial production growth accelerated across all three main segments of industry, namely export-oriented branches (to 6.5% YoY from 3.7% in May), non-export sectors excluding construction-related industries (to 7.9% from 4.1%) and construction-related sectors (to 9.4% from 4.9%). The breakdown of industrial production growth in June points to a continued broad-based recovery in industrial activity. The growth is being supported by both external and domestic demand, with the latter increasingly driven by inflows of EU funds under the Cohesion Fund and the National Recovery Plan. As in May, supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East also supported activity in the Polish industry in June, boosting the output of intermediate goods, which recorded its strongest growth since March 2022 (11.9% YoY versus 7.5% in May). Production data for June also provides further evidence that the investment recovery continued in Q2, as reflected in the sustained growth of capital goods output (7.3% YoY vs. 4.4% in May). This recovery continues to be driven by firms’ increasing need to modernise operations and improve efficiency amid intensifying competition from Asian producers and growing labour, energy and other production costs.
Construction and assembly production rises for a fourth consecutive month
According to data released today by Statistics Poland, construction and assembly production increased by 5.2% YoY in June, compared with 3.9% in May, exceeding both our forecast (4.1%) and the market consensus (5.0%). The acceleration was driven primarily by the favourable working-day effect mentioned above. Seasonally-adjusted construction and assembly production edged up by 0.1% MoM in June, marking a fourth consecutive monthly increase and pointing to a continued improvement in construction activity. However, the seasonally adjusted level of output remained 1.4% below the local peak recorded in December last year.
The acceleration in construction and assembly production growth was driven by stronger activity in the "civil engineering works" category (18.7% YoY in June compared with -1.8% in May). Growth in this category, which reflects infrastructure investment activity, was the strongest since December 2023, when the construction and assembly production was benefiting from the completion of projects co-financed under the EU's 2014-2020 Multiannual Financial Framework. The remaining two categories recorded declines: "specialised construction activities" (-5.7% YoY in June vs. 10.8% in May) and "construction of buildings" (-2.9% versus 5.8%). In our view, construction and assembly production will continue to follow an upward trend in the coming months, supported by the ongoing absorption of EU funds, which we expect to peak in 2026. Additional support for this scenario comes from a further increase in the expected domestic order book indicator among construction firms surveyed by GUS in June, which remained at its highest level since February 2020.
Moderate wage pressure persists in the enterprise sector
According to data released today by Statistics Poland, employment growth in the enterprise sector was unchanged at -0.9% YoY in June, in line with both our forecast and market expectations. The result is consistent with our conclusion saying that the annual employment drop seen in the enterprise sector since Q4 2023 is largely connected with employees attaining retirement age. Meanwhile, nominal wage growth in enterprises employing more than nine people edged up to 5.9% YoY in June, from 5.8% in May, coming in slightly above our forecast (5.8%) and above the market consensus (5.5%). The pickup in wage growth between May and June was broad-based and was recorded, among others, in mining, manufacturing and construction. This points to continued, moderate wage pressure in the enterprise sector. Stronger nominal wage growth combined with a marked decline in inflation (see MACROpulse of 15/07/2026) lifted real wage growth to 3.3% YoY in June vs. 2.6% in May. As a result, real wage fund growth rate increased to 2.3% YoY from 1.7% in May, but fell to 1.7% in Q2 vs. 2.9% in Q1. This is consistent with our forecast of consumption growth slowdown from 3.3% in Q1 to 2.5% in Q2.
Modest upside risk to Q2 economic growth forecast
Today’s data on industrial production, construction and assembly production, wages, and employment in June point to a slight upside risk to our Q2 GDP growth forecast of 3.0% YoY. The data also support our conclusion drawn a month ago that the adverse impact of the conflict in the Middle East on economic conditions in Poland remains limited. Nevertheless, the escalation of tensions in the Gulf region seen in recent weeks remains the main downside risk to our forecast of average annual GDP growth of 3.3% in 2026.
In our view, the overall tone of today’s data from Polish economy is slightly positive for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.
