Nominal retail sales growth in enterprises employing more than 9 people went up from 5.3% YoY in July to 6.4% in August, coming in ahead of market consensus (6.3%) and our forecast (5.4%). Growth in retail sales at constant prices edged down, from 3.9% YoY in July to 3.8% in August, printing below the market consensus (4.5%), but above our forecast (3.5%). The slowdown compared with July was driven by a decline in real wage fund growth, from 2.8% YoY in July to 1.3% in August (see MACROpulse of 21/09/2026). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices went up by 1.0% MoM in August. As a result, retail sales in August stood just 0.1% below the all-time high recorded in March this year.
Strong demand for durable goods continues
Retail sales in August were supported by the government intervening in the fuel market by reintroducing the CPN programme in the second half of the month. This contributed to an acceleration in sales growth at constant prices in the solid, liquid and gaseous fuels category to 1.1% YoY from -0.2% in July. It is also worth noting that sales growth in durable goods categories remained strong in August. Sales of motor vehicles, motorcycles and parts increased by 11.7% YoY in terms of constant prices, compared with 8.1% in July, marking the strongest growth in this category since December 2025. The quick sales growth in this category is consistent with consumer confidence survey results. In July, the quarterly consumer confidence indicator measuring the likelihood of purchasing a car within the next 12 months reached its highest level since Q1 2024. Meanwhile, sales growth in the “furniture, electronic goods and household appliances” category accelerated to 10.6% YoY, from 8.8% in July. The continued strong demand for durable goods points to the recovery in consumption remaining firmly in place.
Consumer sentiment outlook still positive
Favourable consumer sentiment is providing further evidence of the durability of consumer demand recovery. In September, indicators measuring both current and expected conditions for making "major purchases" increased further and remained high by historical standards. This suggests that the sharp increase in geopolitical risk seen in September and associated with the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, together with the related, substantial rise in fuel prices, has not weighed on households' propensity to spend so far. The increase in inflation that we expect in the coming months, which will erode households' real purchasing power, is likely to weigh on consumer sentiment and consumption growth. However, we expect households to smooth consumption by drawing on previously accumulated savings, meaning that spending is likely to adjust only partially to the temporary slowdown in income growth.
Consumption growth close to 3% YoY
Today's retail sales data for August is consistent with our forecast of consumption growth in Q3 (3.1% YoY vs. 2.8% in Q2). The data underpins our view that consumption will remain the main driver of economic growth in that quarter. However, weaker-than-expected August data on industrial production and construction and assembly production point to a slight downside risk to our Q3 GDP growth forecast (3.7% YoY vs. 3.9% in Q2).
In our opinion, today’s retail sales data for August will be neutral for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.
