GDP data almost in line with expectations
In accordance with the flash estimate published by the GUS, Polish GDP went up from -0.4% YoY in Q2 to 0.4% YoY in Q3 and stood between the market consensus (0.3%) and our forecast (0.5%). This is, however, just a flash estimate. Full GDP data including information on its structure will be published towards the end of November.
In our opinion, GDP growth between Q2 and Q3 was driven up primarily by a higher contribution of consumption combined with the inflation drop and an increase in households’ real wages. The increase in the contribution of private consumption was also driven by the easing of last year’s high base effect connected with the increase in households’ expenses caused by the inflow of refugees from Ukraine. Another factor expanding the economic growth in Q3 was a stronger (i.e. less negative) contribution of growth in inventories that resulted, to some extent, from a deceleration of reduction of excessive buffer inventories accumulated in the industrial manufacturing sector during the pandemic and after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. As regards investments, we believe that their contribution towards GDP growth was similar in Q2 and Q3. However, a lower contribution of net exports (a higher domestic demand amidst the less favourable situation abroad) was the factor that we believe to have had a downward impact on economic growth.
“Soft landing” scenario for the Polish economy has materialised
Seasonally-adjusted quarterly GDP growth accelerated from 0.3% in Q2 to 1.4% in Q3 (revised upwards from -1.4%). As a result, Q3 was the third consecutive quarter to see a growth in the seasonally-adjusted GDP. This means that our “soft landing” scenario for the Polish economy has materialised. We believe that the YoY economic growth will accelerate in the quarters to come, driven up by inflation fall stimulating consumption. Today’s Q3 data on GDP has no impact on our economic growth scenario for 2023 (0.5% vs. 5.3% in 2022). In our opinion, it is slightly positive for the PLN and yields on Polish bonds.