Will higher tariffs trigger a surge in imports from China?

MACROmap today:

  • First round of Poland’s presidential election neutral for financial markets
  • Domestic industrial production data negative for PLN and bond yields
  • Slight slowdown in GDP growth in Poland
  • Will higher tariffs trigger a surge in imports from China?

We are pleased to announce that the team of economists at Credit Agricole Bank Polska won 1st place in the 2024 forecasting ranking organized by daily newspapers Rzeczpospolita and Parkiet. This is the most complex and prestigious forecasting competition in Poland. The ranking rewards the accuracy of forecasts prepared with the most distant forecast horizons. Participants submit their forecasts four times a year for the next four quarters, covering the following macroeconomic and market variables: GDP, private consumption, investment, inflation, unemployment rate, EURPLN and USDPLN exchange rates, and the NBP reference rate. Last year’s edition featured 37 participants, including economists from analytical centers and financial institutions, academics, independent analysts, and student research groups.

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