The 12th session of Coface Country Risk conference under the heading “Will geopolitical uncertainty limit Polish exports growth?” was held on 23 March 2017 in Warsaw. Credit Agricole was the strategic partner of the conference.

The Coface Country Risk conferences are dedicated to the risks involved in domestic and cross-border commercial transactions and the support for secure development and exports of Polish enterprises. Analyses of current trends in global economy, latest forecasts concerning the Polish economy, and risk assessments for selected markets are presented during the conferences.

This year’s debate focused on development opportunities for Polish exports in foreign markets in the situation when many countries are facing economic difficulties, protectionism is growing, and political uncertainty is generally higher.

During the presentation dedicated to the long-term prospects of Polish exports, Jakub Borowski, chief economist of Credit Agricole Bank Polska, pointed out that the so-far development model of Polish exports had been based on comparative advantage related to low costs of labour. This model had brought Poland the highest-among-the-EU-countries increase in the share of exports in global trade between 2004 and 2015 and a significant increase in the share of high-tech manufacturing exports in total Polish exports. In his opinion due to the significant differences in the level of wages in manufacturing in Poland and in the developed Eurozone countries, the model based on a fast increase in exports by foreign companies investing in Poland will be maintained in the coming years. A correction of this model, whereby domestic companies’ export growth will sharply and durably accelerate, requires a significant increase in the national saving rate which is hardly likely in the coming years. J. Borowski stated that the medium- and long-term prospects of increasing Polish exports are good, as indicated by both the leading business cycle indicators suggesting recovery in global trade and the long-term forecasts of Polish exports prepared with the gravity model of trade.

Credit Agricole has for several years now assisted enterprises in making the right business decisions concerning internal expansion and search for new outlets abroad. It supports corporate clients in trade finance transactions by proposing solutions that minimize the risks of international trade exchange and ensure liquidity of settlements deriving from cross-border contracts. The bank’s offer also includes products optimizing cash flows from contracts with foreign counterparties.

J. Borowski – chief economist of CABP (on the right) in panel discussion prof. M. Belka – CRC 2017 special guest CRC 2017 – the audience
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