macropulse

• Inventories in manufacturing grow at the fastest pace in 20 years

  01.03.2019

  Polish manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.6 pts in February vs. 48.2 pts January, running below the market consensus (48.2 pts) and our forecast (48.0 pts). Thus, the index has now for four months in a row been running below the 50 pts threshold dividing expansion ...

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• Surprising acceleration of exports in Q4

  28.02.2019

  In accordance with GUS data published today, real GDP growth rate stood at 4.9% YoY in Q4 2018 vs. 5.1% in Q3, running in line with our forecast and the flash estimate released by GUS on 14 February 2019.. ...

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• Consumers have regained their appetite

  21.02.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data that have been released today, retail sales in enterprises employing more than 9 people increased in current prices by 6.6% YoY in January vs. a 4.7% increase in December, which was above the market consensus (6.1%) and our forecast (5.3%). ...

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• Surprising resilience of Polish manufacturing to the slowdown abroad

  20.02.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data, the dynamics of sold production of industry in enterprises employing more than 9 people rose to 6.1% YoY in January vs. 2.8% in December, running significantly above our forecast ...

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• Double-positive surprise in the labour market

  19.02.2019

  In accordance with GUS data published today, nominal wage dynamics in the sector of enterprises employing more than 9 persons amounted to 7.5 % YoY in January vs. 6.1% in December, running above our forecast (6.5%) and the market consensus (6.8%).. ...

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• Drop in energy prices has temporarily lowered inflation

  15.02.2019

  In accordance with GUS data, CPI inflation decreased to 0.9% YoY in January vs. 1.1% in December 2018, running below the market consensus (1.0%) and our forecast (1.2%). ...

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• Interest rates to remain unchanged though not until the end of the MPC term?

  07.02.2019

  As we expected, the Monetary Policy Council has left interest rates unchanged today (the reference rate amounts to 1.50%). ...

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• Scale of demand weakening has surprised manufactures

  01.02.2019

  Polish manufacturing PMI rose to 48.2 pts in January vs. 47.6 pts December, running above the market consensus (47.8 pts) and our forecast (48.0 pts). Thus, the index has now for three months in a row been running below the 50 pts threshold dividing expansion from contraction of activity. ...

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• Surprising slowdown of investments growth in Q4 2018

  31.01.2019

  In accordance with flash GUS data published today, GDP in Poland rose by 5.1% in 2018 vs. 4.8% in 2017, running slightly above our forecast equal to the market expectations (5.0%). ...

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• Is this a beginning of a slowdown in private consumption growth?

  22.01.2019

  In accordance with the Polish Central Statistical Office's (GUS) data that have been released today, retail sales in enterprises employing more than 9 people increased in current prices by 4.7% YoY in December vs. an 8.2% increase in November, running ...

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