Temporary retail sales growth slowdown

Retail sales growth slowdown stronger than expected

In accordance with the data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) today, nominal retail sales growth rate reported by businesses with more than 9 employees came in at 2.8% YoY in April, down from 9.8% in March, which was slightly below the market consensus (3.0%) and our forecast (2.9%). Growth in retail sales at constant prices also slowed, from 8.7% YoY in March to 1.3% in April, printing markedly below the market consensus (3.0%) and our forecast (2.0%). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices contracted by 2.8% MoM in April.

Activity in retail trade curbed by a number of factors

The calendar effect of Easter falling earlier in 2026 than in 2025 (early April in 2026 vs. the second half of April in 2025) had an important, negative impact on retail sales growth between March and April. Consequently, this year’s Easter purchases were only partially made in April as opposed to the year before, when all of them had been made in that month. This was mirrored in a strong decline in real retail sales growth in the “food, beverages and tobacco” category (-5.8% YoY in April vs. +4.3% in March).

A fading effect of pent-up demand after a harsh winter also had a negative impact on retail sales growth in April. In March, improved weather conditions supported increased household mobility, and facilitated, to some extent, the release of pent-up demand from earlier months, supporting sales in such categories as “motor vehicles, motorcycles and parts” and “textiles, clothing, footwear”. In April, the impact of that factor was already markedly weaker, whcih curbed retail sales in those categories.

Retail sales were also limited by unfavourable calendar effects (one day more in March 2026 vs. March 2025, with the same number of working days in April 2025 and 2026).

The conflict in the Middle East remains a consumption risk factor

Dynamic weather conditions resulted in substantial fluctuations in retail sales over recent months. However, seasonally-adjusted results for April were comparable to those reported in December, i.e. before the weather shock. Retail sales are expected to go up in May again, when the negative effect of the shift in Easter dates fades. Notably, May’s consumer confidence index for “future major purchases” has reached its highest level since February 2026. This means that the conflict in the Middle East has only had a limited negative impact on consumers’ sentiment and purchasing decisions so far.

We maintain our assessment, though, that the expected inflation rise reducing consumers’ real purchasing power (see MACROmap of 23/03/2026) will be driving retail sales and consumption down in the months to come. At the same time, we anticipate that households will smooth their consumption, which means that they will only partially adjust their expenses to a temporary drop in income, using the savings accumulated earlier. Consequently, we forecast that average annual private consumption growth will come in at 2.6% YoY in 2026 vs. 3.7% in 2025.

In our view, the data on retail sales in April is slightly negative for the PLN and the yields on bonds.