Strong growth in investment and exports in Q2

Final GDP reading slightly above the flash estimate

In accordance with the final estimate released by Statistics Poland (GUS), GDP growth accelerated to 3.9% YoY in Q2, from 3.5% YoY in Q1, coming in slightly above the flash estimate published in August. Seasonally-adjusted GDP went up by 1.0% QoQ in Q2, compared with a 0.6% growth in Q1.

Consumption remains the main driver of economic growth

Consumption remained the main source of economic growth in Q2, increasing by 2.8% YoY vs. 3.3% in Q1. The slowdown in consumption growth reflected calendar effects related to the earlier timing of Easter in 2026 than in 2025, as well as a significant moderation in growth of the real wage fund across the national economy. We expect the marked increase in inflation in Q3, which is reducing the real purchasing power of household incomes, to weigh on consumption growth. A factor mitigating the adverse impact of elevated inflation on consumption will be the large stock of financial assets accumulated by households. These assets are likely to be used to smooth consumption, resulting in only a partial adjustment of spending to the temporary slowdown in income growth.

Strong investment growth in Q2

Particularly notable about the Q2 GDP breakdown was the significant acceleration in investment growth, to 8.4% YoY from 2.4% in Q1. As a result, investment was the main factor behind the pickup in GDP growth between Q1 and Q2. The increase in investment growth was driven by a strong recovery in investment outlays among enterprises employing at least 50 persons (18.7% YoY in Q2 compared with 8.7% in Q1, see MACROmap of 31/08/2026) and by a rebound in construction activity following the harsh winter (seasonally adjusted value added in construction increased by 1.5% QoQ after declining by 1.8% in Q1), supported by the recovery in infrastructure investment signalled by monthly data. We expect overall investment growth to remain strong in Q3, with the key drivers of fixed capital formation continuing to be the ongoing recovery in corporate investment, signalled by rapid growth in capital goods production in July, and the completion of investment projects financed by EU funds received under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

Export growth strongest since 2017

Net exports contributed 0.5 pp. to GDP growth in Q2, compared with 0.0 pp. in Q1. This reflected a stronger acceleration in exports (10.8% YoY in Q2 vs. 5.6% in Q1) than in imports (10.4% vs. 6.1%). Consequently, excluding the pandemic period, when foreign trade was heavily distorted, export growth in Q2 reached its highest level since Q1 2017. This suggests that despite weak economic conditions among Poland's main trading partners and supply chain disruptions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East, exports continue to grow significantly faster than GDP, with Poland's share of global trade increasing.

The contribution of inventory accumulation to GDP growth amounted to 0.1 pp. in Q2, compared with 0.0 pp. in Q1. This means that changes in inventories contributed to the acceleration in GDP growth between Q1 and Q2, although their overall impact on economic activity in Q2 remained limited.

Rising inflationary pressures to weigh on economic growth

We expect Poland to maintain moderately strong economic growth in the coming quarters, supported by increasing absorption of EU funds flowing into the economy through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, the Cohesion Fund and the SAFE programme. Developments in the Middle East remain a material downside risk to the economic outlook, given their impact on energy commodity prices and global supply chains. The conflict is contributing to higher inflation and, consequently, weighing on the main components of GDP: consumption, investment, and net exports. This assessment is underpinned by today's flash estimate of August inflation (3.4% YoY, compared with both our forecast and the market consensus of 3.1%, with core inflation increasing to 3.4% YoY from 3.1% in July, according to our estimates), which points to a gradual transmission of the commodity price shock into core prices. In our next MACROmap, we will present our revised macroeconomic scenario, incorporating today's Q2 GDP breakdown and the surprisingly high flash estimate of August inflation.

Today's GDP and inflation data are positive for the PLN and yields on Polish bonds.