Spring recovery in retail sales

Solid growth in retail sales

In accordance with the data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) today, nominal retail sales growth reported by businesses having more than 9 employees went up to 9.8% YoY in March, from 4.3% in February, printing markedly ahead of market consensus (6.2%) and our forecast (6.5%). Growth in retail sales at constant prices also went up, from 5.0% YoY in February to 8.7% in March, and that was also substantially above market consensus (5.9%) and our forecast (6.0%). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices in March went up by 3.3% MoM.

Retail trade supported by a number of factors

The recovery in retail sales in March was broad-based, with annual growth accelerating in each category reported by the GUS. The recovery resulted from several favourable factors.

Weather conditions improved substantially in March compared to February, which supported an increase in households’ mobility and propensity to make purchases. Consequently, growth in retail sales at constant prices accelerated in such categories as “motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts” (7.7% YoY in March vs. 2.7% YoY in February), “solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels” (16.2% vs. 10.2%) and “other” (15.1 vs. 9.4%). Fuel sales may have also been supported by concerns about a potential sharp increase in prices. At the same time, a warmer weather boosted the sale of spring clothes, which was mirrored by a strong growth acceleration in the “textiles, clothing, footwear” category, from 0.8% YoY in February to 13.6% in March.

The calendar effect of Easter falling earlier in 2026 than in 2025 (early April in 2026 vs. the second half of April in 2025) had an important, positive impact on retail sales growth between February and March. Consequently, this year’s Easter shopping was partly done in March, while the year before, all of it had been done in April. This was mirrored in a strong acceleration of real retail sales growth in the “food, beverage and tobacco” category (4.3% YoY in March vs. 0.2% in February). Retail sales were also supported by favourable calendar effects (March 2026 had one more day than March 2025, while the number of working days in February 2026 was the same as in February 2025).

Conflict in the Middle East remains a consumption risk factor

Today’s data confirm our earlier assessment that the negative impact of unfavourable weather conditions on retail sales was only transitional, and households’ propensity for consumption remains elevated. Notably, the April consumer confidence index for “current major purchases” has reached its highest level since January 2026. Moreover, the indicators of the likelihood of buying a car, apartment (house) or making a renovation have not changed significantly compared to the previous (January) edition of the survey. This means that the conflict in the Middle East has only had a limited negative impact on consumers’ sentiment and purchasing decisions so far. Bearing in mind the retail sales data for January-March, we can see a substantial upside risk to our consumption growth forecast for Q1 (3.8% YoY vs. 4.3% in Q4 2025).

However, we maintain our assessment that the expected inflation rise reducing consumers’ real purchasing power (see MACROmap of 23/03/2026) will reduce retail sales and consumption in the months to come. At the same time, we anticipate that households will smooth their consumption, which means that they will only partially adjust their expenses to a transitional drop in income, using the savings accumulated earlier. Consequently, we forecast that average annual private consumption growth will come in at 2.6% YoY in 2026 vs. 3.7% in 2025.

Today’s data on industrial production, construction and assembly production, and wages and employment in the enterprise sector in March combined with the data on economic activity in January and February carry a substantial upside risk to our economic growth forecast for Q1 (3.5% YoY vs. 4.1% in Q4). At the same time, further developments of the conflict in the Middle East pose a downside risk to the GDP growth trajectory in the quarters to come, therefore we maintain our average annual GDP growth forecast for 2026 at 3.3%. In the next MACROmap, we will discuss the outlook for economic growth in greater detail, taking into account in particular the trends in the construction sector.

In our view, the data on retail sales in March is positive for the PLN and the yields on bonds.