2025 ends on a high note

Industrial production markedly exceeds expectations

In accordance with the GUS’ data, the volume of sold production in enterprises employing more than 9 people increased by 7.3% YoY in December vs. a 1.1% drop in November, coming in markedly ahead of market consensus (2.8%) and our forecast (3.5%). Industrial production growth between November and December was largely driven up by the statistical effect of a favourable difference in the number of working days (in November 2025, there was one day less compared with November 2024, while in December 2025, the number of working days was the same as in December 2024). Seasonally-adjusted industrial production increased by 2.1% MoM in December.

Capital goods production is growing

Due to favourable calendar effects, industrial production growth accelerated in all three main industrial segments, i.e. export-oriented sectors (7.4% YoY in December vs. -0.6% in November), construction-related sectors (18.9% vs. 0.6%) and other sectors (5.5% vs. -1.7%). The sharp growth in construction-related sectors, which include “other non-metallic mineral products” (16.8% YoY in December vs. -1.9% in November) and “fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment” (19.9% vs. 1.8%) resulted primarily from last year’s low base effect (in December, production in those categories went down by 20.2% MoM and 16.8% MoM, respectively). What is also worth noting is the continued (since March 2025) growth in capital goods production (17.1% YoY in December vs. 3.7% in November). In our view, it mainly stems from the enterprises making investments related to their restructuring and efficiency-improvement processes. This is consistent with our forecast for total investments, which are projected to rise by 8.5% in 2026 vs. 5.8% in 2025.

Strongest activity in construction sector since January 2025

Construction and assembly production growth accelerated to 4.5% YoY in December vs. 0.1% in November, printing above the market consensus and our forecast (0.0% both). A key factor contributing to the acceleration was the statistical effect mentioned above, related to the favourable difference in the number of working days. In December 2025, seasonally-adjusted construction and assembly production expanded by 5.1% MoM, the strongest result since January 2025.

Awaiting a rebound in public investment

Construction and assembly output growth accelerated in “specialised construction activities” (23.0% YoY in December vs. 18.9% in November) and “construction of buildings” (13.3% vs. 8.0%), but it declined in “civil engineering works” (-7.2% vs. 12.8%). This underpins our scenario, in which the cumulation of EU funds that Poland is receiving under the National Recovery Plan and Multi-Annual Financial Framework for 2021-2027 will be boosting the activity in the construction sector in the quarters to come. We anticipate that the EU funds absorption will peak in 2026 (see MACROmap of 19/01/2026). Public investments in infrastructure will be the main driver of construction and assembly production growth, which will also be boosted by housing investments (see MACROmap of 06/10/2025). However, given the low level of utilisation of production capacities, the role of companies’ investments as a factor improving the activity in the construction sector will remain limited.

Employment in the enterprise sector keeps going down

In accordance with the GUS data published today, the employment growth rate for the enterprise sector edged up from -0.8% YoY in November to -0.7% in December, in line with market consensus and our forecast. In monthly terms, the number of employed in December fell by 3.5k. The decline was concentrated in “manufacturing” (-7.4k), but it was partially offset by increases in “administrative and support service activities” (+3.4k) and “trade and repair of motor vehicles” (+1.7k). The decline in manufacturing mirrors the restructuring processes in that sector. It should be noted that employment in the Polish business sector is curbed by unfavourable supply factors related to the shrinking workforce, with baby boomers reaching the retirement age (see MACROmaps of 17/11/2025 & 24/11/2025). We anticipate that the downward trend in employment seen over the last couple of quarters in the business sector will continue in the months to come.

Upside risk to our Q4 consumption growth forecast

Nominal wage growth in enterprises employing more than 9 people went up from 7.1% YoY in November to 8.6% in December, printing ahead of market consensus (6.9%) and our forecast (7.8%). In real terms, wage growth in companies accelerated from 4.5% YoY in November to 6.1% in December. Consequently, real wage fund growth accelerated from 3.7% YoY in November to 5.4% in December. In Q4, it went up to 4.0% YoY, from 3.4% in Q3, which poses an upside risk to our forecast, in which consumption growth slowed from 3.5% in Q3 to 3.3% in Q4.

Stronger economic activity in Q4

Today’s data on industrial production, construction and assembly production, and wages and employment in the enterprise sector in December carry a slight upside risk to our economic growth forecast for Q4 (3.8% YoY; no change compared with Q3) and 2025 (3.6% vs. 3.0% in 2024). Moreover, stronger economic activity in Q4 may convince the MPC to put interest rate cuts on hold until March 2026, which would be consistent with our monetary policy scenario (see MACROpulse of 14/01/2026).

We believe that the overall tone of today’s data from Polish economy is slightly positive for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.