The outlook for demand for durable goods remains favourable

Retail sales in July better than expected

In accordance with the data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) today, nominal retail sales growth rate reported by businesses with more than 9 employees came in at 4.8% YoY in July, up from 2.1% in June, exceeding both the market consensus and our forecast (3.6%). Growth in retail sales at constant prices went up, too, from 2.2% YoY in June to 4.8% in July, coming in ahead of market expectations, which were also consistent with our forecast (3.5%). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices did not change between June and July. Consequently, they remain below their global peak recorded in April this year.

The outlook for demand for durable goods remains favourable

Growth in retail sales at constant prices between June and July accelerated primarily due to stronger sales growth in categories of durable goods: “motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts” (10.7% YoY in July vs. 7.7% in June) and “furniture, electronic goods and household appliances” (15.3% vs. 10.2%). It is consistent with our scenario, in which the outlook for demand for durable goods remains favourable. Our conclusion is underpinned by GUS’ consumer confidence indicators, which suggest that households show a relatively strong inclination to make major purchases and a relatively high likelihood of buying a car within the next 12 months, and by our medium-term consumption growth forecasts supported by the real wage fund, which is growing at a moderately fast pace (see MACROmaps of 21/07/2025 and 30/06/2025). Retail sales growth also accelerated quite strongly in the “textiles, clothing, footwear” category (14.7% vs. 11.8%). At the same time, the 6-month moving average of growth in the so-called core sales (i.e. sales excluding cars, fuels and food) in July reached the highest value since February 2023, which indicates that consumption demand recovery is becoming increasingly stronger.

Slight upside risk to our Q3 consumption growth

Retail sales data supports our scenario that the ongoing consumption recovery in Poland is sustainable, and will remain the most stable driver of Polish GDP growth in the quarters to come. Nonetheless, we can see a slight upside risk to our consumption growth forecast for Q3 (3.1% YoY vs. 3.8% in Q2).

Today’s data on retail sales in July is slightly positive for the PLN and the yields on bonds.