Retail sales reach all-time high

According to data published today by Statistics Poland (GUS), nominal retail sales growth in enterprises employing more than 9 people reached 7.9% YoY in April, compared to 0.6% in March, significantly exceeding both the market consensus (3.9%) and our forecast (2.4%). Retail sales at constant prices climbed to 7.6% YoY in April, up from -0.3% in March, also clearly above the market consensus (3.4%) and our forecast (2.0%). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices went up by 3.5% between March and April. As a result, April retail sales reached the highest level in history.

Later Easter boosted sales growth in April

The calendar effect of Easter falling later in 2025 than in 2024 (April vs. the turn of March and April) had a positive impact on retail sales growth between March and April. Consequently, last year’s pre-Easter shopping was concentrated in March, while this year it shifted to April. This was reflected in the sharp increase in real retail sales growth in the “food, beverage and tobacco” category (9.7% YoY in April vs. -9.4% in March). Retail sales were also supported by much stronger-than-expected wage growth in the enterprise sector in April, which led to a strong acceleration in real wage fund growth (see MACROpulse of 21/05/2025).

Strong demand for durable goods continues

Particularly noteworthy is the continued strong growth in sales in durable goods categories: “motor vehicles, motorcycles and parts” (14.9% YoY vs. 18.4% in March) and “furniture, electronic goods, household appliances” (13.2% vs. 12.9%). The rapid growth of sales in the “motor vehicles, motorcycles and parts” category aligns with consumer sentiment surveys. They show that in Q2 2025 households' propensity to buy a car was the highest since Q1 2024. In our view, the robust growth in demand for durable goods signals that the recovery in consumer demand is sustainable.

Upside risk to Q2 consumption growth rising

The April retail sales figures signal an upside risk to our Q2 consumption growth forecast (2.1% YoY vs. 2.5% in Q1). This supports our scenario that the MPC will leave interest rates unchanged in June. The data also indicate that the slowdown in consumer demand growth in the coming quarters may be less pronounced than we expected and that economic growth in 2025 may be higher than we currently forecast (3.1%). However, we continue to believe that the proposed sharp increase in tariffs on EU exports to the US, reaffirmed by Donald Trump in recent days, represents a significant downside risk factor to GDP growth in H2 2025 (see MACROmap of 26/05/2025).

Today’s data on retail sales in April are positive for the PLN and yields on bonds.