Private consumption as the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth

GDP growth in Q2 consistent with expectations

In accordance with Statistics Poland’s (GUS) flash estimate, GDP growth in Poland increased from 3.2% YoY in Q1 to 3.4% YoY in Q2, consistent with both the market consensus and our forecast. Seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP growth accelerated from 0.7% in Q1 to 0.8% in Q2. The data published by Statistics Poland are a flash estimate and the full GDP data, including information on its breakdown, will be published at the end of August.

Consumption is the main driver of acceleration in GDP growth

We believe the main driver of the acceleration in Q2 was stronger consumption growth, which rose from 2.5% YoY in Q1 to 3.8%. This higher consumption growth was supported by a marked increase in the real growth of the wage fund, boosting demand for goods and services. A higher household propensity to consume was also signalled by robust retail sales data in Q2.

In our view, a recovery in investment linked to EU co-financed projects and a higher contribution from net exports also contributed to the acceleration of GDP growth in Q2, though to a lesser extent than private consumption.

We maintain our GDP growth forecast

Today’s Q2 GDP figures, which were consistent with our expectations, support our GDP growth forecast for 2025 (3.6% vs. 2.9% in 2024). We also maintain that the current recovery in consumption in Poland will be lasting and will remain the most stable source of GDP growth in the coming quarters.

In our opinion, today’s release will be neutral for the PLN and yields on Polish bonds.