Industrial production gains momentum despite the high base effect
According to Statistics Poland (GUS), the sold production of industry in enterprises employing more than nine people expanded by 4.6% YoY in September, compared with a 4.0% increase in August. Consequently, production growth came in markedly above our forecast (2.8%) and market consensus (3.1%). The result is especially positive given last year’s high base effect. Seasonally adjusted industrial production expanded by 3.4% MoM in September, which points to a renewed strengthening of the upward trend in industrial activity.
Export-oriented sectors and non-export sectors unrelated to construction were the main drivers of stronger industrial production growth in September. Production growth in export-oriented sectors remained unchanged at 5.4% YoY, while production growth in non-export-oriented sectors unrelated to construction accelerated to 4.4% YoY from 3.7% in August. By contrast, production growth in construction-related sectors slowed to 3.6% YoY from 4.6%. Among export-oriented sectors, particularly strong growth was recorded in the “computer, electronic and optical products” (12.6% YoY) and “other transport equipment” (20.4%) categories.
The relatively strong performance of export-oriented sectors is consistent with September business survey data for Eurozone and German manufacturing. In our view, the September industrial production data suggest that the factors supporting the recovery in Eurozone manufacturing, including growing demand for AI-related technologies and stronger equipment orders linked to higher defence spending, are beginning to be reflected in activity growth in Polish industry. It is also worth noting that capital goods production growth accelerated to 6.8% YoY in September from 4.7% in August. This may indicate that improving external demand is partly offsetting the gradual fading of support for corporate investment activity associated with projects financed under the National Recovery Plan (NRP).
Sharp decline in construction and assembly production after the NRP boost ended
Construction and assembly production fell by 9.0% YoY in September, following a 6.6% increase in August, coming in markedly below our forecast (+2.0%) and market consensus (3.4%). Seasonally adjusted construction and assembly production shrank by 7.3% MoM in September.
In our view, the sharp decline in construction and assembly production in September largely reflected the end of the boost from investment projects financed under the National Recovery Plan. As we noted last month (see MACROpulse of 21/09/2026), the need to complete certain projects co-financed by the EU by the end of August helped accelerate construction work during that period, temporarily boosting production growth. The end of this effect was reflected primarily in a sharp fall in construction and assembly production growth in the “civil engineering works” category (-4.1% YoY in September versus 29.0% in August). Our assessment is underpinned by today's statement from Statistics Poland, which attributed the decline in production to, among other factors, the irregular timing of settlements following the completion of construction works. The other two categories also contributed to the decline in construction and assembly production in September: “specialised construction activities” (-6.1% YoY in September vs. 3.9% in August) and “construction of buildings” (-19.2% YoY vs. -19.5%).
Slight acceleration of wage growth
The employment growth rate in the enterprise sector remained unchanged between August and September, standing at -0.8% YoY, in line with market consensus and our forecast. At the same time, the number of FTEs went down by 7.4k MoM. This is consistent with our assessment that the annual employment drop seen in the enterprise sector since Q4 2023 is largely due to employees attaining retirement age.
Meanwhile, nominal wage growth in enterprises employing more than 9 people went up from 5.6% YoY in August to 5.9% in September, coming in slightly below the market consensus (6.0%) and our forecast (6.1%). Faster wage growth in September was driven primarily by stronger pay growth in mining and in the “trade; repair of motor vehicles” category. In our view, wage pressures in the enterprise sector remain moderate. Due to the sharp rise in inflation in September (see MACROpulse of 14/10/2026), the real wage growth rate fell from 2.1% YoY in August to 1.7% in September. As a result, real wage bill growth slowed to 0.9% YoY in September, from 1.3% in August, reaching its lowest level since July 2023. At the same time, real wage bill growth remained unchanged at 1.7% YoY in Q3 compared with Q2, which does not change our forecast of consumption growth accelerating from 2.8% in Q2 to 3.1% in Q3. Retail sales data for September, which are due on Thursday, should provide a clearer picture of the outlook for private consumption.
Slight slowdown in GDP growth in Q3
Today’s data on industrial production, construction and assembly production as well as wages and employment in the enterprise sector support our forecast for economic growth in Q3 (3.7% YoY compared with 4.1% in Q2). Today’s data also underpin our existing assessment that the adverse impact of the conflict in the Middle East on economic conditions in Poland remains limited.
We believe that the overall tone of today’s data from the Polish economy is neutral for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.
