Slower retail sales growth in September
Nominal retail sales growth in enterprises employing more than 9 people went up from 6.4% YoY in August to 6.7% in September, coming in below the market consensus (7.1%) and slightly ahead of our forecast (6.6%). Growth in retail sales at constant prices slowed from 3.8% YoY in August to 3.3% in September, printing below the market consensus (3.6%), but above our forecast (3.0%). The slowdown in retail sales growth between August and September was driven by a decline in real wage fund growth, from 1.3% YoY in August to 0.9% in September (see MACROpulse of 20/10/2026). Seasonally-adjusted retail sales at constant prices contracted by 1.7% MoM in September. As a result, sales in September printed 1.8% below the all-time high recorded in March this year.
More signs of sustained consumption recovery
The end of the government's August intervention in the fuel market (the CPN programme) weighed on retail sales in September, with sales at constant prices in the “solid, liquid and gaseous fuels” category dropping by 9.8% YoY, compared with a 1.1% growth in August. It is also worth noting that sales growth in durable goods categories remained strong in September. Sales of “motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts” at constant prices increased by 13.1% YoY (the strongest growth since December 2025), up from 11.7% in August, while sales growth in the “furniture, electronic goods and household appliances” category edged up to 10.7% YoY, from 10.6% in August. Strong sales growth in those segments, together with our estimated increase in core retail sales growth excluding fuels (to 5.3% YoY from 4.2% in August), points to a sustained recovery in consumption.
Overall household sentiment deteriorates
Favourable consumer sentiment continues to point to a sustained recovery in consumer demand. However, main consumer confidence indicators sent a more mixed signal in October. The indicator measuring the expectations concerning “major purchases” rose to its highest level since July. At the same time, consumers’ assessments of “changes in consumer prices over the past 12 months” deteriorated markedly (reaching the lowest level since November 2025), as did the assessments of “changes in the household’s financial situation over the next 12 months” (the weakest since April this year) and “changes in the country's overall economic situation over the next 12 months” (the weakest since June 2023). In our view, higher fuel prices and inflation are key factors weighing on these assessments. Combined with continuing tensions in the Middle East, they may be perceived by households as a prolonged shock with a negative impact on their expected income. The discrepancy between these assessments and the improvement in the indicator measuring households’ propensity to make major purchases suggests that households are likely to smooth consumption. In other words, they are likely to adjust their spending only partially to the temporary decline in income by drawing on previously accumulated savings. Consequently, the deterioration in overall household sentiment is unlikely to lead to a significant slowdown in consumption growth in the coming months.
Consumption growth close to 3% YoY
Today's retail sales data for September is consistent with our forecast of consumption growth in Q3 (3.1% YoY vs. 2.8% in Q2). The data underpins our view that consumption will remain the main driver of economic growth in Q3, with GDP pencilled in at 3.7% YoY vs. 4.1% in Q2.
In our opinion, today’s retail sales data for September will be neutral for the PLN and the yields on Polish bonds.
